Capitals vs Ducks

Washington’s five-game winning streak and nine wins in its last ten stand in sharp contrast to Anaheim’s recent L-W-L-W-L rhythm, and that momentum gap is amplified by the Ducks’ injury list, with Lukas Dostal and Petr Mrazek both out in goal and Mikael Granlund sidelined, leaving Ville Husso and depth options to handle a surging Capitals offense. On the Washington side, the injury report is lighter—Justin Sourdif is out and John Carlson is listed day-to-day—but the core of Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois and breakout rookie Ryan Leonard remains intact, and Logan Thompson has been in Vezina-caliber form behind them. Recent head-to-head history also leans heavily Caps, with Washington taking five of the last six against Anaheim, including a 7-4 road win at Honda Center last March where Aliaksei Protas posted a hat trick and Ovechkin and Dubois combined for six points, underscoring how their top-end talent has repeatedly broken this matchup open. Laying -140 on a road favorite always carries some variance, but with Washington’s current form, Anaheim’s compromised crease and the Caps’ demonstrated ability to exploit this opponent, the implied win probability around the high-50s feels a touch low; I’d project Washington closer to the low-60s, making this a solid A- play that still offers respectable monetary value for standard one-unit risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:34am

The total of 6.5 looks aggressive at first glance, but both teams’ current scoring profiles and trends argue strongly toward another track meet in Anaheim, with Washington and Anaheim each hovering around four goals for per game on the season and combining for roughly seven total goals per night, while the Ducks are giving up close to four against thanks to porous team defense. Anaheim’s goaltending injuries turbocharge that offensive environment: with Dostal and Mrazek unavailable, the Ducks are leaning on Husso and unproven depth behind a defense that just allowed eight to Utah and has repeatedly cracked late in periods, and that’s a dangerous recipe against a Caps attack that just hung seven on San Jose and has been rolling lines with Ovechkin, Leonard, Tom Wilson and Protas all finishing at a high clip. Historically this matchup has tilted wild as well—Washington has cleared six total goals with Anaheim in four of the last five meetings, including that 7-4 Caps win at Honda Center last season—and when you add in both clubs’ vulnerable penalty kills and Washington’s revitalized power play, the Over 6.5 at -120 grades out as a B+ position: the probability edge over the implied mid-50s isn’t enormous, but the combination of form, injuries and matchup history makes it an attractive piece in a multi-bet card. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:34am

For those willing to embrace more variance, the puckline tilts toward Washington as well, with the Caps having covered -1.5 in the majority of their recent wins thanks to an offense averaging north of five goals over the last ten games, while Anaheim’s last ten include multiple multi-goal losses driven by late defensive collapses and sub-.900 save percentages from anyone not named Dostal. The Ducks’ current injury picture—two goalies out and Granlund still shelved—forces them to lean heavily on young forwards like Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier and Mason McTavish to trade chances with a veteran Washington core that has already proven it can separate in this matchup, as seen in that previous 7-4 Caps victory at Honda Center where Washington turned a tie game into a three-goal margin in the final seven minutes. Because both teams have played fewer than 30 games, we’re still pre-41-game “true” playoff-scramble territory, but the early standings show Washington jockeying at the top of the Metro while Anaheim is trying to hold position in a tight Pacific race, and that urgency—combined with the Caps’ superior depth, hot goaltending in Thompson and Anaheim’s thin crease—pushes me toward an aggressive angle: Washington -1.5 at 175 earns a B grade, as the probability of a multi-goal Caps win is meaningfully lower than a straight moneyline but the plus-money return offers compelling upside if Washington’s offense breaks this open again. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:34am