Jets vs Maple Leafs

With Winnipeg riding a seven-game losing streak and stuck at the bottom of the Central, while Toronto has won three of its last four including a 4-0 shutout of New Jersey, the momentum edge clearly favors the home side despite the Leafs’ injury list. Current ESPN rosters confirm that Toronto still dresses its core forwards — Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Mitch Marner — but they’re dealing with key absences on the back end (Chris Tanev on injured reserve) and in goal (Anthony Stolarz on IR), plus Matthews and Nylander listed day-to-day, whereas Winnipeg shows no active injuries and rolls out a healthy spine of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and Connor Hellebuyck. Historically, Matthews has been highly productive against Winnipeg (well over a point per game across two dozen meetings), while Scheifele has torched Toronto lately with six points in his last two games versus the Leafs, so star power is strong on both benches. At roughly the halfway mark of the season, Toronto sits in a crowded Atlantic race with top-tier special teams on the penalty kill and a positive goal differential relative to the Jets’ negative one, and this spot — home ice against a reeling, travel-weary opponent — is exactly where a would-be playoff team needs to bank points. Laying -145 on the Leafs is not a discount given their defensive injuries and goaltending volatility, but the combination of form, matchup history, and home advantage makes Toronto the side I’d back on the moneyline, worthy of a solid but not elite B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:33

The recent form and underlying numbers for both teams lean toward goals, even acknowledging some uncertainty around Toronto’s injured forwards. The Jets are allowing 3.03 goals against per game with only 2.82 goals for, but their last several outings have featured defensive lapses and multi-goal concessions, while the Leafs are playing a wide-open brand of hockey, sitting at 3.28 goals for and 3.28 against per game thanks to a high-event offense and a banged-up blue line. If Matthews and Nylander return as expected, Toronto can ice three legitimate scoring lines; even if one of them is limited, they still have Tavares, Marner and emerging depth pieces to drive offense against a Jets team whose penalty kill is middle of the pack and whose road goals-against have spiked during this current skid. On the other side, Winnipeg’s top unit of Scheifele, Connor and Gabriel Vilardi has repeatedly punished Toronto in recent meetings — including a 5-2 Jets win where Scheifele recorded a hat trick and Connor added two goals — and Hellebuyck has not been the impenetrable force he once was this season. With both clubs hovering around the playoff bubble and needing two points rather than settling for a sleepy, low-event outing, a 4-3 or 4-2 type game feels more likely than a defensive clampdown, making Over 6 at -110 a modest-value position that I grade as B-, with push protection at exactly six goals. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:33

While I expect Toronto to find a way to win, the profile of both teams points toward a tight scoreboard, which makes Jets +1.5 on the puckline attractive even at a steep -210. Winnipeg’s seven-game losing streak contains a string of one-goal defeats (2-1, 3-2, 4-3) that reflect competitive play undone by thin margins rather than blowout territory, and they come into this matchup with a clean injury sheet and a veteran-heavy roster built to grind out close games. Toronto’s record, goal differential and schedule log all scream volatility: they’ve mixed multi-goal outbursts with defensive breakdowns, and with Chris Tanev and Dakota Joshua on injured reserve plus Anthony Stolarz sidelined, their ability to close games comfortably is compromised, especially if Matthews or Nylander plays at less than full strength. Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets’ structured blue line (Morrissey, Pionk, Samberg) are good enough to keep Toronto’s attack from running away, and Scheifele’s recent success against the Leafs raises the odds of Winnipeg staying within one even in a losing effort. Given the combination of the Jets’ propensity for tight losses, the Leafs’ injury-driven inconsistency, and both teams’ desperation to cling to playoff relevance around midseason, I slightly prefer taking the cushion with Winnipeg +1.5 at -210 over laying a big price on Toronto to win by multiple goals, grading this puckline play as a B-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:33