Jets vs Senators

With Winnipeg riding an eight-game winless streak that began with a 3-2 overtime loss to these Senators on December 15 and now sitting at 15-20-4, it’s hard to justify stepping in front of Ottawa at home when they’ve gone 6-3-1 in their last 10 and just snapped their own mini-slide against Washington. The Jets’ 4-9-4 record in one-goal games this season underscores their late-game execution problems, especially compared with last year, and that’s a bad recipe on the road against an Ottawa team still within striking distance of an Eastern wild-card spot. Goaltending is a key variable here: Connor Hellebuyck remains a high-end starter and has dominated the Senators in past meetings including a 4-1 win in Ottawa last season, but Ottawa should get the softer end of the matchup in net with Ullmark on personal leave and Leevi Merilainen or Hunter Shepard likely facing a Jets offense that’s pressing and turning pucks over. Ottawa’s forward depth—Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Giroux, plus a now-healthy Shane Pinto—has already burned Winnipeg once this season, and with the Senators at home and finishing chances better lately, I’m siding with the favorite even at a modestly expensive -143 price; I’ll grade this Senators moneyline play a B- given a solid edge in form and situation but only middling value at the current number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/01/2026 09:38

The total at 5.5 leans Over for me, even at -125, because Winnipeg’s recent games have combined shaky defending with enough top-end talent Scheifele, Connor, Vilardi to keep them trading chances, while Ottawa’s current goaltending situation without Ullmark amps up volatility on the Senators’ side of the ledger. The Jets have coughed up leads repeatedly during this eight-game skid, including a 6-5 loss in Toronto and multiple one-goal defeats, which speaks both to defensive lapses and the likelihood of late scoring in either direction; at the same time, Ottawa has been in a run of high-event contests, with a 7-5 loss in Toronto, a 4-1 loss to Columbus and then a 4-3 win over Washington that highlighted the Zetterlund–Stutzle–Chabot offensive core. Factor in that Merilainen’s numbers this season are well below league average and that Ottawa’s power play with Stutzle, Tkachuk and Batherson can punish Winnipeg’s mistakes, while the Jets still have Hellebuyck to keep them close enough to press offensively rather than sit back, and you have multiple paths to six or more goals via special teams, late pushes and empty-net scenarios. I’ll grade Over 5.5 a B: the price is a bit rich, but the combination of Winnipeg’s unraveling defensive structure, Ottawa’s aggressive style at home and both teams’ recent scoring profiles makes the Over the side I’d rather be on. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/01/2026 09:38

Even while I prefer Ottawa to win this game outright, the most logical puckline angle is Winnipeg +1.5 at -210, because virtually every recent data point says Jets games are tight: they’re 4-9-4 in one-goal decisions this year and have dropped six of their last eight by a single goal, including that 3-2 overtime meeting with the Senators that started this skid and a pair of one-goal losses in Detroit and Toronto to open the current trip. Ottawa’s profile points the same way—despite an improved 6-3-1 stretch, they’ve been more outscore you than lockdown, with Merilainen and the blue line still allowing plenty of chances, and their most recent win over Washington was another one-goal margin that required late offense from the Zetterlund–Chabot–Pinto group. With Hellebuyck in net, Winnipeg usually gets enough saves to hang around, and even though Ottawa’s top six with Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson and Giroux gives them a higher ceiling, the Senators’ injuries down the middle earlier in December and the current instability in goal make multi-goal separation less bankable than the moneyline suggests. The juice on Jets +1.5 isn’t cheap, but as a way to fade Winnipeg’s outright form while still betting on another tight finish, it earns a B grade: high probability of cashing thanks to both teams’ one-goal tendencies, offset by limited upside if it does. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/01/2026 09:38