Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens

With Winnipeg coming in having dropped five of its last six and Montreal now losers in seven of its past ten, this matchup is more about which team stabilizes first than about raw record. The biggest swing factor is in goal: with Connor Hellebuyck sidelined for 4–6 weeks after knee surgery, Winnipeg is leaning on Eric Comrie and rookie Thomas Milic, a clear downgrade compared to Sam Montembeault and the Canadiens’ current tandem. Montreal is hardly healthy either, missing Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle and Patrik Laine for extended stretches, but its core scoring group of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky is intact and driving one of the league’s better power plays. Historically this matchup has tilted toward Winnipeg’s stars—Kyle Connor has piled up 26 points in 22 career games against Montreal while Mark Scheifele has 23 points in 30—but Suzuki has quietly produced 16 points in 19 career meetings with the Jets, and he’s in strong form heading into this one. With the Canadiens still scoring more than three goals per night, the Jets’ penalty kill likely to be tested by Montreal’s top-five power play, and Winnipeg’s goaltending ceiling lowered without Hellebuyck, I’ll side with the home team at an essentially coin-flip price, though the Jets’ offensive talent and Montreal’s recent skid keep this at a B- rather than a stronger edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:27am

This total is sitting right on the key number of 6, but the underlying profiles scream high event: Montreal is averaging 3.36 goals for and 3.60 against per game with a top-tier 25.4% power play and a bottom-third penalty kill, while Winnipeg sits near three goals both for and against with a top-10 power play of its own. Recent form backs the expectation of volatility, as the Canadiens are coming off a stretch of heavy-scorelines (including 7-2 and 5-2 losses) and have dropped seven of ten in games that frequently open up when they chase from behind, and the Jets have conceded at least four goals in four of their last six during their current slide. The goaltending situation amplifies the offensive upside: Winnipeg without Hellebuyck is far more fragile in its own zone, and Montembeault, though capable of big nights, has been playing behind a defense missing Guhle and relying heavily on Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson to soak tough minutes. Add in the fact that Connor and Scheifele have historically torched Montreal and Suzuki’s line has been driving a hot home power play, and the recipe leans toward at least one team getting to four in a game where an empty-netter or late push can push it past 6. Given the offensive firepower, special-teams mismatch against Montreal’s weak penalty kill, and the downgrade in Jets net, I like Over 6 at -120 enough for a solid but not elite B grade, aware that a 3-2 whistle-fest or a strong night from either goalie can still drag this to a push or Under. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:27am

Given Winnipeg’s recent run of five losses in six and its reliance on a patchwork goaltending duo without Hellebuyck, the scenario where the Jets run away on the road feels less likely than a tight, one-goal game or outright Montreal win, making the Canadiens +1.5 the safer side of this puckline despite the steep -215 price. Montreal has certainly had some blowout losses during its current 3-7 skid over the last ten, but most of those heavier defeats came in situational trouble spots or against high-end offenses, and this matchup offers home-ice last change for Martin St. Louis to work around missing pieces like Newhook, Guhle and Laine. Offensively, Suzuki and Caufield are playing at or near point-per-game pace, and Suzuki’s 16 career points in 19 games versus Winnipeg suggest he consistently finds ways to produce against this opponent, while Connor and Scheifele’s strong historical numbers against the Canadiens keep Winnipeg dangerous enough that the more conservative position is simply betting Montreal not to lose by multiple goals. Factor in that both teams are still in the early, sub-41-game phase of the schedule where playoff stakes aren’t fully crystallized—often translating into more back-and-forth, less “shut-it-down” hockey—and the Habs’ puckline profile leans more toward close outcomes than sustained collapses, even if their overall form is shaky. The heavy juice dings the value, so this lands at a B- rather than something higher, but as a way to back the healthier goaltending side and home-ice underdog while respecting Winnipeg’s scoring talent, Montreal +1.5 is the preferred puckline angle. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:27am