Jets vs Avalanche

Nathan MacKinnon is in full Hart-mode again, driving a Colorado team that sits at 24-2-7 and has gone 5-0-1 over its last six as it welcomes a Jets group that has dropped five of its past six and slid to 15-16-2. Even with Connor Hellebuyck recently back from arthroscopic knee surgery and owning three straight regular-season shutouts against the Avalanche last year, Winnipeg’s current skid and road form are a concern, especially heading into altitude after being held to a single goal in St. Louis. Colorado’s core is largely intact outside Logan O’Connor, and MacKinnon’s 16 goals and 24 assists in 43 career games versus Winnipeg underscore how often he’s been able to tilt this matchup, while Mark Scheifele’s solid production against the Avs hasn’t been enough to offset the Jets’ recent defensive leaks. With the Avalanche also getting top-tier contributions from Cale Makar and a deep blue line in front of an in-form Mackenzie Blackwood/Scott Wedgewood tandem, the structural and form edges still point to Colorado, even acknowledging Hellebuyck’s ceiling and past dominance in this series. I’m laying the price and taking Colorado Avalanche -250 on the moneyline with a B+ grade: high win probability backed by current form and matchup history, but only moderate monetary value because of the heavy juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:28. Sources: Team records, schedules, and recent results for both clubs; confirmed active rosters for Winnipeg and Colorado; current injury reports (Hellebuyck knee timeline, O’Connor on IR); Hellebuyck’s 3-0-0, 0.67 GAA, .976 SV% line vs Colorado in 2024-25 and last-5/last-25 splits; MacKinnon’s career production vs Winnipeg; Scheifele’s recent production vs Colorado; and Jets–Avalanche head-to-head context. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/wpg/winnipeg-jets))

Colorado is averaging 3.9 goals per game to Winnipeg’s 3.0, and recent results like the Avs’ 5-3 win in Seattle and 6-2 and 4-2 home decisions over Florida and Nashville point toward another high-event night at Ball Arena, even if Hellebuyck’s historical shutouts in this matchup loom large. The Avalanche are firing nearly 34 shots per game while allowing chances the other way in their up-tempo style, and with MacKinnon leading the league in goals and points and Cale Makar piling up offense from the back end, it’s hard to project Colorado being held down for long, particularly against a Jets team that has conceded four or more goals repeatedly during its current slump. Winnipeg still brings legitimate scoring punch through Scheifele and Kyle Connor, and Hellebuyck’s overall .915 save percentage since returning suggests he’s good but not quite at last season’s MVP/Vezina level just yet, which makes a 4-2 or 5-2 type script for Colorado very realistic. Factoring in the fatigue of Winnipeg’s recent travel, the altitude in Denver, and the way both coaching staffs are leaning on their stars, I’m betting Over 6 at -115 with a B grade: the number is fairly efficient and Hellebuyck can still steal an Under, but the offensive environment favors goals. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:28. Sources: Team offensive and defensive averages (goals per game, goals against, shots per game) and matchup preview; MacKinnon’s league-leading scoring pace and Makar’s current production; Avalanche recent game log showing repeated 4+ goal outputs; Jets’ recent run of games allowing multi-goal totals during their skid; and Hellebuyck’s season save percentage and post-surgery status. ([foxsports.com](https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/winnipeg-jets-vs-colorado-avalanche-dec-19-2025-game-boxscore-43619?utm_source=openai))

The Avalanche have been not just winning but often winning by margin—recent home victories of 6-2 over Florida, 7-2 over Montreal, 6-3 over Buffalo and 4-2 over Nashville highlight how they continue to press for insurance rather than sitting on one-goal leads—while the Jets’ downturn has featured several multi-goal defeats such as 5-1 in Buffalo, 6-2 in Edmonton and 6-3 at home to Boston. Even allowing for Hellebuyck’s outstanding regular-season record against Colorado last year and the risk he again frustrates them, Winnipeg comes in 1-4-1 in its last six, struggling to generate consistent offense in front of him, whereas Colorado’s forward depth (MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Martin Nečas, Gabriel Landeskog) and a Makar–Toews-led blue line are driving one of the league’s most dominant shot and scoring profiles. With the game in Denver, the Avalanche riding a 24-2-7 start and 5-0-1 heater, and Winnipeg’s underlying form eroding since its hot October, Colorado -1.5 at -110 is my preferred way to back the favorite, trading some win probability for a far better return than the moneyline while still aligning with how these teams have actually been winning and losing. I grade Avalanche -1.5 (-110) a B+, recognizing Hellebuyck’s ceiling but trusting Colorado’s current trajectory and scoring depth to secure a multi-goal victory more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 09:28. Sources: Recent multi-goal win margins in Colorado’s schedule; Jets’ recent multi-goal losses during their slump; overall team records and current streaks; confirmation of active cores on both rosters (MacKinnon, Makar, Nichushkin, Landeskog, Scheifele, Connor, Morrissey, Hellebuyck); and prior-season Avalanche–Jets results, including Winnipeg’s OT win in Denver that still featured a heavy Hellebuyck workload. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/col/colorado-avalanche))