Jets vs Sabres

With Winnipeg just snapping a four-game skid in Nashville and Buffalo coming off an impressive shootout win in Minnesota, the recent form tilt ever so slightly toward the Sabres, especially with Connor Hellebuyck now on injured reserve and the Jets leaning on Eric Comrie and Thomas Milic behind a defense that just got torched by Carolina. Buffalo has key injuries of its own — notably Josh Norris and Jiri Kulich on IR — but its core of Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and Rasmus Dahlin is intact, and Thompson and Dylan Cozens both found the net against Winnipeg the last time these teams met, a 3-2 OT Jets win in Buffalo that required Adam Lowry heroics. Winnipeg still owns the better goal differential and defensive profile overall, yet with Hellebuyck sidelined, Buffalo’s strong 8-5-2 home mark versus the Jets’ merely decent 7-6-0 road record makes the Sabres a small but real value as a short home favorite in a season that’s not yet at the 41-game playoff pressure point. I’ll back Buffalo on the moneyline at -115 for a modest edge in both matchup and situational factors, grading this bet a B for solid win probability but only middling plus-minus on expected monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:29am

Both clubs sit on 76 goals scored, but the Jets’ usual defensive advantage (70 goals allowed versus Buffalo’s 86) is heavily tied to Hellebuyck, and with him unavailable and the team recently bleeding chances in a 5-1 loss to Carolina before opening up in a 5-2 win over Nashville, this projects more like a higher-event game than the season-long numbers alone suggest. Buffalo’s offense is driven by Thompson’s finishing and Dahlin’s puck-moving, with recent depth scoring from Beck Malenstyn and Josh Doan, while Winnipeg still rolls out Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi — all of whom impacted the last meeting in Buffalo — so there is ample firepower on both sides to push past a 6.5 total. The Sabres’ defensive issues (3.44 goals against per game) and reliance on relatively unproven goaltenders like Colten Ellis and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen further increase the chance of swings and special-teams opportunities, especially with both teams on quick turnaround from Saturday action. At an even 100 price, I see enough upside in the combination of weakened Jets goaltending, Sabres’ leaky own end and concentrated star scoring to lean Over 6.5, but the inherent volatility of totals and the book shading the Under at -120 drop this to a B- grade for likelihood and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:29am

Even while I slightly prefer Buffalo on the moneyline, the matchup profile and recent history point strongly toward a one-goal game, which makes taking Winnipeg +1.5 attractive despite the hefty -260 price: the Jets needed overtime to win 3-2 in this building last season, and Buffalo’s current mix of strong but top-heavy scoring and shaky team defense has led to a run of tight finishes rather than frequent multi-goal blowouts. Winnipeg’s skaters remain a clear strength — with Scheifele driving offense, Josh Morrissey pushing play from the back end and depth pieces like Nino Niederreiter and Vilardi capable of chipping in — and even without Hellebuyck, that group is good enough to keep pace against a Sabres lineup missing Josh Norris down the middle. With both teams still short of the 41-game mark, this isn’t a full-on playoff-leverage spot, but cross-conference points matter and should keep the Jets engaged for sixty minutes, especially as they look to stabilize after that four-game losing streak. I expect Buffalo’s home edge and slightly better current form to carry them, yet often in a 3-2 or 4-3 type of result, so I’ll take Jets +1.5 at -260 and grade it B- due to high win probability offset by limited monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:29am