Commanders vs Eagles

With the Eagles already at 11-5 and riding a 3-2 stretch in their last five, versus Washington’s 1-4 slide, I still lean to Philadelphia on the moneyline at -200 despite Nick Sirianni’s plan to rest Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and other core starters while Tanner McKee takes over under center.([thegruelingtruth.com](https://thegruelingtruth.com/football/match-ups/washington-commanders-vs-philadelphia-eagles-01-04-2026/?utm_source=openai)) Washington’s quarterback room is in even worse shape, with Jayden Daniels shut down and Marcus Mariota called a “stretch” to play, which likely forces 39-year-old Josh Johnson — 1-9 in his career as a starter — to run a behind-schedule offense already hampered by injuries up front.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/marcus-mariota-still-ailing-josh-johnson-could-start-again-commanders--flm-2025-12-30/)) The Eagles’ home field and defensive ceiling, plus Saquon Barkley’s long-term dominance of this matchup (over 1,200 rushing yards and 13 TDs in 12 career games vs Washington) and recent control of the series, still make it more likely that even a rotation-heavy lineup finds a way to win outright.([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/saquon-barkley-stats-vs-commanders?utm_source=openai)) That said, the payout at -200 is only moderate and resting so many stars adds variance, so this is more of a solid but not elite value play, worthy of a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:58([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/washington-odds-vs-eagles?utm_source=openai))

With both teams likely turning to backup quarterbacks — Tanner McKee for a playoff-bound Eagles team resting Hurts and much of its explosive core, and Washington down to Josh Johnson if Mariota’s hand and quad don’t cooperate — the offensive ceiling for this Week 18 divisional game looks materially lower than the season-long scoring numbers suggest, making Under 39 at -110 appealing.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/reports-eagles-plan-start-qb-tanner-mckee-rest-jalen-hurts-other-starters--flm-2025-12-31/?utm_source=openai)) Washington averages about 20.8 points per game but has stumbled to 1-4 over its last five while dealing with injuries across the offensive line and depth chart, and the Eagles, at roughly 22.6 points per game, have already shown a willingness to lean on their defense and shorten games once seeding is mostly secured.([sportsbookreview.com](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/scores/nfl-football/matchup/359265/?utm_source=openai)) Add in the fact that Philadelphia’s secondary and pass rush just handled this opponent comfortably in a 29-18 road win, while Barkley and Brown are more likely to be in ball-control or street-clothes roles than full-on volume usage, and a slower, lower-variance script with fewer explosive plays becomes the most reasonable expectation.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/saquon-barkley-eagles-clinch-nfc-east-title-with-win-over-commanders--flm-2025-12-21/?utm_source=openai)) At 39, the number still offers enough cushion against late garbage-time scoring to justify a B-grade position on the Under rather than a heavier stand. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:58([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/washington-odds-vs-eagles?utm_source=openai))

Against the spread, the Eagles have been the steadier side this year (9-7 ATS to Washington’s 6-10), but the specific Week 18 context — Philadelphia resting key starters and protecting health while already in the playoffs, versus a full-go but 4-12 Commanders team trying to avoid a 1-5 finish down the stretch — tilts me toward Washington +4 at -110.([thegruelingtruth.com](https://thegruelingtruth.com/football/match-ups/washington-commanders-vs-philadelphia-eagles-01-04-2026/?utm_source=openai)) The Commanders still have dangerous matchup pieces in Terry McLaurin, who has averaged over 75 receiving yards per game across 12 career meetings with the Eagles, and Deebo Samuel, and they should attack a defense that may rotate personnel and snap counts more than usual.([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/terry-mclaurin-stats-vs-eagles?utm_source=openai)) On the other side, a McKee-led Eagles offense without full workloads from Barkley, Brown, and others has a far narrower blowout path than the -4 number implies, especially with Washington’s front seven desperate to redeem itself after getting gashed by Barkley in the recent 29-18 loss.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/reports-eagles-plan-start-qb-tanner-mckee-rest-jalen-hurts-other-starters--flm-2025-12-31/?utm_source=openai)) With Philadelphia’s main incentive limited to a small chance of moving from the No. 3 to No. 2 seed and Ron Rivera’s group essentially treating this like a statement game, the backdoor and outright upset probabilities make Washington +4 a higher-value position than the Eagles’ side here, earning a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:58([philadelphiaeagles.com](https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/commanders-vs-eagles-injury-report-nfl-week-18-2025-season-nakobe-dean-lane-johnson?utm_source=openai))