Wizards vs Pacers

CJ McCollum and the Wizards come into Indy on a four-game skid, but Indiana’s situation without Tyrese Haliburton (out for the season) plus key wings Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin tilts the matchup far closer than the -360 home moneyline implies, especially with the Pacers stuck at 6-19 and still searching for consistent late-game shot creation. Washington’s own injury list is long — with Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Sharife Cooper, and Corey Kispert sidelined and Khris Middleton banged up — yet their veteran scoring duo of McCollum and Middleton just pushed Cleveland to the wire and has been carrying a much more efficient half-court attack than last year’s track-meet version of this team. While the Pacers routed Washington 119-86 in the first meeting behind a big Pascal Siakam line, that game came with a healthier supporting cast; now Andrew Nembhard is being asked to shoulder primary-creator duties, which raises volatility and makes an upset more live than the market suggests. With two bottom-feeders, a fragile Indiana rotation, and plus money north of +280, taking the swing on Wizards moneyline is a value-driven, medium-confidence play at B- rather than a rock-solid position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:37

Washington’s porous defense and fast pace push their average game total into the 240s, but this specific spot profiles differently with both offenses severely undermanned and Indiana’s attack already ranking near the bottom of the league without Haliburton. The Wizards are down multiple shooters and play-finishers in Kispert, Coulibaly, Sarr and Tre Johnson, which forces heavier usage onto McCollum, Middleton and Marvin Bagley in slower, more matchup-hunting half-court sets that don’t translate to 48 minutes of track meet scoring, especially on the road in a matinee after a draining collapse against Cleveland. On the other side, the Pacers have shifted into a more Siakam- and Nembhard-centric offense that grinds through post touches and pick-and-rolls rather than the turbo-charged, five-out tempo they rode last season, and their recent results have trended toward grindy, mid-200s scores. The prior 119-86 Pacers win between these teams landed at just 205 points even with a healthier Indiana rotation, and when you combine that history with today’s injury attrition and early tip, 234.5 looks several possessions too high, making the Under at -109 a strong value lean worthy of a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:37

Khris Middleton and McCollum just showed against Cleveland that Washington can build real cushions against quality teams before late-game execution falls apart, and that profile — competitive for long stretches, leaky in crunch time — often plays perfectly into covering a big number like +9 even when the outright win doesn’t come through. Indiana has stabilized a bit behind Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin, winning four of their last seven before the recent loss in Philadelphia, but asking a 6-19 group missing its All-NBA engine plus multiple rotation wings to win by double digits is a different proposition than simply eking out home results. The earlier 33-point Pacers blowout of these Wizards is inflating this line despite materially different circumstances: Indiana was healthier on the perimeter then, while Washington has since leaned more into veteran-heavy lineups that tighten up some of the worst transition issues that plagued them in November. With the Wizards on a back-to-back and still only a low-confidence team, the safer angle is trusting their shot creation and foul-drawing to keep this within two or three possessions rather than banking on a fragile Pacers group to front-run wire-to-wire, so Wizards +9 at -113 earns a solid B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:37