Golden Knights vs Islanders

Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights roll into UBS Arena riding a four-game win streak and a strong 7-2-4 road record, but the New York Islanders have quietly banked six of a possible eight points in their last four against quality opponents like Tampa Bay and Colorado, making this less of a “hot vs cold” matchup than the line suggests. With Vegas largely healthy aside from depth pieces such as Colton Sissons and recent day-to-day notes in goal, the more impactful injury story is on New York’s side, where Jonathan Drouin and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are listed day-to-day and Kyle Palmieri remains on IR, compressing the forward rotation but also forcing heavy minutes onto top threats Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. Even so, Horvat leads the Isles with 29 points and 17 goals, and he already helped New York steal the first meeting 4-3 in overtime, while Eichel and Tomas Hertl drive a Vegas attack that averages just over three goals per game against an Islanders defense allowing only 2.73 goals per night behind Ilya Sorokin’s .912 save percentage. Factor in that New York is 7-6-2 at home but sits third in a tight Metro race, Vegas is 7-2-4 away and second in the Pacific, and the Isles have excelled as underdogs this season, and the +118 home moneyline offers enough value to back Sorokin and a structured defensive group to grind out another narrow win; I’ll take New York Islanders at 118 on the moneyline, graded a B+ for combining a live home dog with elite goaltending and a sizeable plus price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:29am

With the total set at 5.5, this projects as a battle between two top-tier goaltending setups and recent defensive trends that lean slightly toward a lower-scoring script, even though season-long numbers show both teams combining for about 5.9 goals per game. Over their last 10, the Islanders have averaged only 2.2 goals for but a stingy 1.7 against, and Sorokin comes in on a heater after a shutout in Tampa and a 35-save win versus Colorado, while Vegas has allowed just eight goals across a four-game win streak thanks to a deep crease featuring Akira Schmid and Carter Hart. New York’s injury situation up front (Pageau and Drouin day-to-day, Palmieri on IR) plus a sputtering 14.3% power play are likely to drag their scoring efficiency down against a Vegas penalty kill north of 80%, even as the Golden Knights’ own 25% power play and 3.04 goals per game keep the Over in play. Given that both teams tilt toward tight margins, with the Isles comfortable in grind-it-out affairs and Vegas 13-1-5 when they reach three goals, the combination of recent low-event Isles games, elite goaltending on both sides, and injured New York scoring depth nudges me to Under 5.5 at 100, graded a B because long-term totals trends still slightly favor the Over and a single special-teams swing could push this over the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:29am

Given Vegas’s status as a short road favorite and their 7-2-4 road mark, the safest angle on this matchup is backing the Islanders to keep it within a goal on the puckline at +1.5, even at a steep -225 price. The Golden Knights have needed overtime or a shootout in two of their last three wins, and their overall 14-6-8 record (with eight overtime or shootout losses) screams tight games rather than blowouts, while New York’s recent resume includes a 4-3 overtime win in Vegas and a run of low-scoring contests where they’ve leaned heavily on Sorokin and strong team defense. Injuries to Drouin, Pageau and Palmieri certainly cap the Islanders’ offensive ceiling, but they also reinforce Patrick Roy’s defense-first game plan, which has seen New York allow just 2.73 goals per game and ride an 83.5% penalty kill, a profile that naturally produces one-goal decisions in both directions. With Sorokin in form, a packed UBS Arena, and the Isles sitting firmly in the Metro playoff picture despite the banged-up forward group, the probability that this stays inside a two-goal margin — even in many Golden Knights win scenarios — is high enough to justify laying -225 on New York +1.5, earning this puckline an A- grade for safety and win probability, albeit with limited payout upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:29am