Oilers vs Golden Knights

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl come into this one driving an Oilers team that just wrapped a 3-2-0 road trip and has gone 6-3-1 over its last 10, while Vegas had an eight-game point streak (6-0-2) snapped last night in Calgary and now has to turn around for another tough road game. With Jack Eichel not making this Canadian swing and Shea Theodore ruled week-to-week, the Golden Knights are missing their primary play-driver and top puck-moving defenseman, which really matters against an Edmonton group that’s 10-4-1 against Vegas since 2021-22 and eliminated them in five games last spring. Edmonton’s biggest red flag is a brutal 0-4-3 record in the second half of back-to-backs and a banged-up crease with Tristan Jarry on injured reserve, but home ice, rested star minutes for McDavid/Draisaitl against a blue line missing Theodore, and strong recent underlying scoring (121 goals on the year despite negative differential) push me toward the Oilers at -135. I’d grade this Moneyline A-: solid edge on talent and situation at a price that’s still reasonable, though the Oilers’ back-to-back trend and goaltending uncertainty keep it just shy of elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/12/2025 09:45

Both teams arrive with form that leans toward a higher total: Edmonton’s last 10 have averaged roughly 6 goals against per night combined (4 scored, 2.8 allowed), and they just played a 5-2 track meet in Minnesota, while Vegas has been at about 5.3 total in that span but gave up six in Calgary as their point streak ended. The Oilers’ goaltending depth is stretched with Jarry on IR and Calvin Pickard/Connor Ingram picking up starts, and Edmonton’s style with McDavid and Draisaitl inevitably tilts games toward skill and power-play opportunities, especially against a Vegas team that has historically struggled to contain those two over long series. On the other side, even without Eichel and Theodore, Vegas still rolls out Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Mitch Marner and plenty of finishing around the net, and both sides are playing the second game of a back-to-back, which typically erodes defensive structure and checking detail more than it hurts top-end scorers. Because the injuries on Vegas slightly cap their ceiling and a 3-3 score only yields a push, I’m grading Over 6 at -115 as a B: a reasonable matchup for offense with some value, but not enough discount to push it into must-bet territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/12/2025 09:45

Given how often these teams have played one-goal grinders in recent seasons and the way both are trending right now, I’d rather lay the price with Vegas at +1.5 than chase Edmonton -1.5 at +180, even though I project the Oilers to win more often than not. Edmonton’s 0-4-3 mark in the back half of back-to-backs, paired with a thin, injured goaltending tandem and the likelihood that Kris Knoblauch leans hard on McDavid and Draisaitl again after big minutes in St. Paul, increases the chance of a late, one-goal game where Vegas’ veteran core (Stone, Hertl, William Karlsson, Marner) can claw back inside the number. Meanwhile, the Knights’ season-long goal differential (+5 on 99 for, 94 against) and recent 6-2-2 run suggest they’re far from overmatched even without Eichel and Theodore, and their structure typically keeps scores tight, as we saw in last year’s split regular-season series and in multiple playoff meetings. The downside is the steep -220 price, which leaves less room for error if Edmonton’s stars simply take over and push this to a multi-goal margin, so I grade Knights +1.5 at B-: a pick that leans into the probability of another tight contest but offers only modest monetary value relative to the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/12/2025 09:45