Utah Mammoth vs Pittsburgh Penguins

The market is shading toward Utah at -140 despite the Mammoth being a sub-.500 road team and recently enduring a stretch with seven losses in nine before Friday’s home win over Seattle, while Pittsburgh sits at 14-8-7 with a positive goal differential but has now dropped four straight, including blowing a 5-1 third-period lead to San Jose. Utah is missing its leading goal scorer Logan Cooley for at least eight weeks with a lower-body injury, and they’re also without Olli Määttä and Alexander Kerfoot, which chips away at both their transition game and center depth, forcing even more offensive responsibility onto Keller and a red-hot Guenther, who torched the Penguins for two goals and an assist in that 6-1 win here last season. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly healthy either with Malkin and Blake Lizotte on IR, but Crosby has quietly put up three points in two career games against this franchise and continues to drive play, while the Penguins’ underlying five-on-five numbers and home record suggest they’re more mid-tier than their current skid implies. With Utah’s recent form still shaky even after the Kraken win, and the Penguins desperate to stop the bleeding in front of Jarry/Silovs behind a crowd at PPG Paints, I grade taking the home dog Penguins at +118 as a B-level play for combining solid value with moderate risk tied primarily to their current volatility and missing Malkin. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:25

Despite Cooley’s absence, Utah games have trended high event: the Mammoth just played back-to-back 4-3 and 5-3 contests, with Guenther and Keller still driving a power play that converts when it gets volume, while their own defensive structure has leaked late, especially on the road where they sit below .500 and have been vulnerable to breakdowns. Pittsburgh’s last four have all featured at least five goals, capped by that 6-5 overtime loss to San Jose that exposed defensive and goaltending inconsistencies even with Tristan Jarry back, and the Penguins’ top six with Crosby, Bryan Rust and Anthony Mantha continues to create enough offense to offset the loss of Malkin, particularly against a Utah blue line missing Määttä and short on shutdown options. Between Pittsburgh’s four-game skid, Utah’s recent slump before the Seattle win, and both teams’ reliance on their top forwards in this spot, the recipe leans toward a game where special teams opportunities and third-period scoreboard pressure push things past the key number of 6 more often than not, even if a strong goaltending performance on either side always threatens an under. At -120, I make Over 6 a B- play: the total aligns with recent scoring trends and injury-driven defensive softness, but the juice and possibility of a tighter, playoff-style response from Pittsburgh keep it just shy of a higher grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:25

On the puckline, Utah laying -1.5 at +175 is tempting after last season’s 6-1 blowout here powered by Guenther’s multi-goal night, but this matchup now comes with Cooley sidelined and a Mammoth attack that’s a bit more top-heavy, while Pittsburgh has played a remarkable number of one-goal and overtime games this season, including three extra-time results in their last seven. The Penguins’ home profile (more middle-of-the-pack than dominant), combined with their current four-game losing streak and injuries to Malkin and Lizotte, suggests they’re more likely to grind out a tight response than to run Utah off the ice, especially with Crosby historically productive against this franchise and Jarry back in the rotation after his earlier injury layoff. Utah’s 7-10-2 road mark and recent defensive wobbles, plus the Penguins’ tendency to keep games within a goal even when they lose, point toward taking the insurance of +1.5 despite the steep -210 price, which limits the payout and drags the value component of the grade down. I’ll side with Pittsburgh +1.5 on the puckline as a C+ pick: structurally sound based on recent game states and injuries, but burdened by heavy juice and significant correlation with a Moneyline position on the home side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/12/2025 09:25