Utah Mammoth vs Detroit Red Wings

Dylan Larkin and the Red Wings roll into this one on a two-game winning streak and a 4-1 run over their last five, while the Mammoth have dropped three of five and are coming off a 4-1 loss in Boston, leaving them 2-3 in that stretch and still sub-.500 on the road. With Patrick Kane and Mason Appleton out for Detroit and Logan Cooley plus Alexander Kerfoot sidelined for Utah, both teams are missing important forwards, but Utah’s injuries hit them hardest down the middle and thin an already streaky offense. Detroit’s current roster still boasts a red-hot Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond and Larkin driving a top-10-caliber attack that has produced 105 goals in 34 games, and that punch is backed by a power play near 24%, compared with Utah’s middling man-advantage and greater reliance on even-strength scoring. Head-to-head, last season’s meetings between this Utah core and Detroit saw DeBrincat and Marco Kasper combine for key goals in a 5-1 Red Wings win, while Utah’s top guns like Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller have scored in this matchup but haven’t consistently tilted results. Both sides are on the second night of a back-to-back, which slightly increases variance, yet Detroit’s 10-6-1 home mark versus Utah’s 8-11-2 road record, plus the Wings’ stronger special teams and deeper healthy top-six, make laying the modest -125 moneyline price reasonable value. I’d grade this Moneyline play on Detroit as a B+, reflecting a solid statistical edge and decent price, but acknowledging back-to-back fatigue and average goaltending on both sides keep it short of elite confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:25am

Both teams’ recent form and season-long numbers point slightly toward goals in this spot, even with the total set at 6 and the Over juiced at -120: Utah is scoring 3.06 goals per game and allowing 3.00, while Detroit sits at 3.09 for and 3.21 against, putting their combined offensive output just above six goals per night before accounting for special teams. The Mammoth’s last five have produced totals of 5, 9, 8, 7 and 6, with their attack erupting for 10 goals in the two wins over Seattle and Pittsburgh but also conceding four in each of their three recent losses, suggesting a high-event profile that strains their goaltending despite Karel Vejmelka’s generally solid work. Detroit’s last five are a bit tighter (totals of 5, 4, 5, 7 and 4), yet John Gibson and Cam Talbot remain closer to league-average than shutdown, and the Wings’ potent power play should test a Utah penalty kill that is strong but will be under pressure from DeBrincat, Raymond and Larkin. With both clubs playing on the second night of a back-to-back, defensive structure and puck management tend to erode faster than raw effort, and Utah’s missing centers (Cooley and Kerfoot) could further skew their style toward opportunistic rush chances rather than low-event control, adding volatility in both directions. Given that prior meetings between this roster core and Detroit have featured multi-goal surges from both sides’ key forwards, and considering the goaltender comparison where no one is posting elite save numbers, I lean over 6 at -120, grading it a B: the number aligns with their season-long scoring profile and back-to-back dynamics, but the juice and the push potential at exactly six keep it below A-range. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:25am

On the puckline, Detroit -1.5 at -196 asks a steep price for the Wings to clear a multi-goal margin, and while recent trends support that possibility, the value is modest at best: Detroit has won four of its last five with three of those victories coming by at least two goals, including 4-0 shutouts in Chicago and Vancouver and a 4-3 road win in Calgary that was only a single-marker away from another multi-goal cover. Utah, by contrast, just lost by three in Boston and has been outscored 15-10 in its last five despite a dramatic comeback in Pittsburgh, with Cooley’s absence down the middle stretching their depth and making them more vulnerable when they chase games late. That said, the Mammoth’s roster still features dangerous finishers like Guenther, Nick Schmaltz and Keller, and their season-long goal differential is nearly even, so they are not a typical heavy underdog that gets routinely blown out, particularly with Vejmelka capable of stealing stretches even when the team is on its heels. Detroit’s home-ice edge, superior power play and scoring depth behind DeBrincat and Larkin do tilt the probability toward a regulation win, and their history against this Utah core includes a comfortable 5-1 victory last spring, but at this inflated price you’re paying for a lot of that edge up front. I’d grade the Red Wings -1.5 puckline as a C+: the outcome is reasonably likely given Detroit’s form and Utah’s injuries plus road record, yet the expensive number and Utah’s competitiveness in most losses limit both expected value and confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:25am