Jazz vs Mavericks

Dallas’ short-handed core still gets my nod on the moneyline given home court, Utah’s 5–15 road mark and the Jazz’s current two-game skid. Even with Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II sidelined, and Cooper Flagg plus several rotation pieces banged up, Jason Kidd is getting enough offense from Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall and a deep guard group to sit at 12–11 at home and they just hung 144 on this same porous Jazz defense two nights ago. Utah does lead the season series 2–1 and could see Lauri Markkanen back from illness after sitting the last two, but Dallas’ spacing and transition game have consistently stressed a Jazz team allowing 128.4 points per game to opponents over its last 10, and the Mavs are fractionally ahead in the West race as both teams cross the 41-game mark. With play-in positioning already in view, I’m backing Dallas to grind out a home win at -188 on the moneyline for a B-grade recommendation, acknowledging the injury risk but respecting their matchup and situational edges. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:37

Utah’s pace-and-space attack screams points, but I’m leaning under 242.5 with Dallas also missing multiple primary creators and both sides having just traded haymakers in a 144–122 Mavericks win. The three prior meetings this season landed on 273, 230 and 266 total points, yet that latest explosion came with Lauri Markkanen sidelined by illness, Cooper Flagg out and the Mavs hitting a season-high 19 threes – an efficiency spike that’s tough to duplicate in a quick rematch. Dallas has averaged a more modest 113.4 points over its last 10 while Utah’s offense often looks less fluid away from Salt Lake City, and with both teams at the midpoint of the schedule and chasing the play-in line, a slightly tighter, more adjustment-heavy game script is in play. At such an inflated number I’ll grab under 242.5 (-118) and grade it a C+ play, recognizing real shootout volatility but seeing just enough value in betting on some regression from Thursday’s outlier scoring binge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:37

Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George make Utah +4.5 my preferred side after Dallas’ blowout win, with the Jazz still leading the season series 2–1 and the first two meetings decided by seven in overtime and two in regulation. If Markkanen is able to return from his recent illness, his 27.9 points per game and ability to punish mismatches, paired with George’s 23.7-and-6.8 playmaking line, give Utah enough top-end shot creation to hang around against a Mavs group still down Irving, Davis and much of its center depth. The Jazz have dropped two in a row and sit 13th in the West while Dallas is only one spot above them, so with both teams at 41 games and clinging to faint play-in aspirations, this feels more like a possession-by-possession grind than a repeat of Thursday’s 22-point margin. I’ll take Jazz +4.5 (-118) against the spread with a B- grade, siding with the extra cushion and Utah’s demonstrated ability to keep this matchup close when even reasonably healthy. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:37