Utah Mammoth vs Calgary Flames

Clayton Keller and the Utah Mammoth roll into Calgary on a two-game road heater after stomping Anaheim 7-0 and handling Vancouver 4-1, while the Flames just halted their own skid with a 4-1 win over Minnesota but are still only 2-3 in their last five. Utah remains the better offensive team on paper at a bit over 3 goals per game, yet their 7-9-2 road mark and this being the fourth straight away date put them in a tough scheduling spot against a Calgary group that is 5-4-2 at home and finally getting some traction. The injury report tilts toward the hosts as well: Utah is down Olli Maatta on the back end, trimming their defensive depth around workhorses like Mikhail Sergachev and Nate Schmidt, whereas Calgary’s roster is currently clean and can lean on a full complement of regulars up front and on defense. Utah did take the first meeting 3-1 and still features top-end threats in Keller (team-leading points) and Logan Cooley (team-leading goals), but Nazem Kadri continues to drive Calgary’s offense, and with Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley forming a capable tandem behind a rested lineup, I’m willing to lay the short price on the Flames at -120 on the moneyline versus Utah at 100, expecting Calgary’s home-ice, rest, and depth edges to show up late. Grade: B — the spot and price are attractive, but Utah’s stronger underlying five-on-five profile and recent surge keep it a notch below premium. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:43am

With the total set at 6 (over  -105, under -115), this matchup looks more like a grind than a track meet, as Utah is allowing only about 2.9 goals on roughly 25 shots against per game while Calgary sits just under 3 goals against with similar shot volume but leans on an 83%-range penalty kill to stay afloat despite scoring barely more than 2.3 goals per night. Both clubs have underwhelming power plays sitting in the mid-teens in conversion rate, so even though Utah’s offense is stronger overall at a bit above 3 goals per game, a lot of their success has come from territorial control and shot suppression rather than trading chances, while Calgary’s attack has struggled to finish consistently. The goaltending matchup should support a lower-total script as well: Karel Vejmelka has provided solid numbers for Utah, and Calgary can deploy either Wolf or Cooley, each carrying a goals-against figure in the mid-2s to low-3s and a save percentage around or above league average, which has already produced several tight, low-event games for the Flames. Recent form also fits the under lean, with four of Calgary’s last five landing at six goals or fewer and Utah’s last two wins driven as much by limiting chances as by outbursts on the scoreboard. Grade: B+ — the under at 6 combines season-long defensive trends, weak power plays, and credible goaltending with a key number that offers push protection, though empty-net chaos in a one-goal game is always a risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:43am

Because I expect Calgary to win this more often than not but in a close, lower-scoring contest, the puckline angle I prefer is Utah +1.5 at -250 rather than chasing the Flames -1.5 at 205. Utah’s last five include three losses, yet only one (the 6-3 defeat in San Jose) was by more than a goal, and for the season they’re allowing under 3 goals per game on one of the league’s lowest shot-volume profiles, which makes multi-goal losses relatively rare compared to how often they hang around. Calgary, meanwhile, scores barely more than 2.3 goals per game and typically wins via structure and goaltending rather than offensive barrages, which naturally suppresses the frequency of two- and three-goal victories even when they have the better of play. The Mammoth already claimed the first meeting 3-1 behind contributions from their top line, and with Keller and Cooley driving a more dangerous attack than Calgary’s, plus a still-respectable penalty kill to offset Maatta’s absence, there’s a strong case they keep this within one even if a tired road group finally runs out of gas. Grade: B- — the probability of a one-goal result is high enough to justify swallowing the juice on Utah +1.5 given their defensive profile and Calgary’s limited scoring punch, but the steep -250 price keeps it behind the Flames moneyline in terms of pure value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:43am