Maple Leafs vs Jets

Auston Matthews has carved up Winnipeg over his career and just hung a four-point night on the Jets in their 6-5 thriller earlier this month, but with Toronto coming off a 6-1 drubbing and sitting 3-2 in its last five while Winnipeg has quietly gone 4-1, the situational edge tilts toward the home side in this rematch. Even with Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares all active per the current ESPN roster, Toronto’s blue line is thinned by injuries to Chris Tanev and Dakota Mermis, and they’re still leaning on Joseph Woll behind a group that’s allowed more than three goals per game and sits in the bottom half of the league in save percentage. Winnipeg, by contrast, is finally back to riding Connor Hellebuyck after his knee layoff, and he’s stabilized things behind a healthy core of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey on a roster that remains intact according to ESPN, which helps explain the Jets’ recent surge despite their overall 19-22-5 mark. With Toronto clinging to an Eastern Conference wild-card position while Winnipeg fights from the basement of the Central, the urgency is high on both sides, but the combination of Hellebuyck’s form, the Jets’ 4-1 run, and home ice in a building where they’re over .500 nudges me to the favorite at this modest price. I’d grade Winnipeg -133 on the moneyline as a B: a solid but not slam-dunk edge that balances a small perceived win-probability advantage with fair, if unspectacular, value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:02

Given how these teams just played a 6-5 track meet and how Toronto’s profile screams offense-first — top-10 in goals scored, a shooting percentage north of 12 percent, but a bottom-half goals-against and penalty kill — a total of 5.5 still looks a shade low, even with elite goaltending talent in this matchup. Winnipeg’s headline numbers are more modest, yet the Jets have scored at least four goals in three of their last four wins, and their penalty kill hovering below 80 percent combined with Toronto’s potent top unit and Auston Matthews’ long-term scoring success against the Jets suggests both power plays can matter. On the flip side, Joseph Woll’s solid career save rate and Connor Hellebuyck’s Vezina-caliber baseline should prevent a complete shootout every night, and in a game with playoff-type stakes — Toronto trying to solidify its Atlantic seed around the halfway mark while Winnipeg chases the Western wild-card pack — there is always some risk that the pace tightens into a 3-2 grinder. Still, with both clubs trending to higher-scoring scripts of late, recent head-to-head fireworks, and neither blue line fully trustworthy, I lean to Over 5.5 at roughly -120 and would grade it a B-: a reasonable play with decent upside, but more variance and less pricing cushion than the side. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:02

For the puckline, I’m willing to fade my Jets moneyline lean slightly and take the more conservative angle that this stays within a goal, making Toronto +1.5 attractive even at the expensive -225 price. Winnipeg’s overall goal differential is only slightly negative despite its losing record, a sign of how many one-goal games it plays, and Toronto’s top-end talent — Matthews’ point-per-game dominance against the Jets, Nylander driving play, and Morgan Rielly anchoring the attack from the back end — usually keeps them in range even when they don’t grab the full two points. The Leafs are dealing with injuries on defense and in goal, but their forward group is fully intact on the active roster and has already shown it can crack Hellebuyck, while the Jets’ reliance on their top line and goaltender means that if either falters, the most likely failure is a narrow loss or a tight win rather than a blowout. With Toronto in a wild-card dogfight and Winnipeg desperate not to lose ground at home, a playoff-style intensity that compresses scoring margins is another subtle plus for the underdog plus the goals, even if the Jets ultimately edge the result. I’d grade Leafs +1.5 (-225) as a C+: protection against a close Winnipeg win with a high likelihood of cashing, but the heavy juice and correlated exposure with a Jets moneyline position keep it in the smaller-stake category. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:02