Maple Leafs vs Mammoth

Toronto rolls into Salt Lake on a four-game win streak while Utah is 3-1-1 in its last five, and that form contrast at roughly the season’s midpoint, with both clubs sitting in tightly packed playoff races, tilts the moneyline value toward the underdog. With Utah missing Alexander Kerfoot and Utah beat writer reports indicating Logan Cooley is also sidelined, the Mammoth’s center depth and transition game are meaningfully thinned, whereas Toronto’s injuries (Anthony Stolarz, Chris Tanev, Dakota Joshua, Dakota Mermis, plus Nicholas Robertson out) are notable but haven’t derailed a goaltending tandem led by Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby that’s produced a 3.16 team GAA over 23-15-7 form. The first meeting, a 5-3 Leafs win in Toronto, saw Auston Matthews and William Nylander drive play while Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller were dangerous but ultimately outgunned, and that matchup history plus Toronto’s current edge in five-on-five shot share and special-teams efficiency (3.38 GF/G vs Utah’s 3.02, with the Leafs’ penalty kill running near 85%) makes the 125 price on a team riding a points heater feel like solid but not slam-dunk value on the road. With Utah still a strong 11-7-2 at home and owning a top-tier starter in Karel Vejmelka, this isn’t a mismatch, but the combination of Toronto’s streak, slightly deeper high-end forward group, and plus-money price makes the Maple Leafs moneyline worthy of a Grade B recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:01

Both teams enter with positive recent momentum—Toronto on that four-game heater and Utah having earned points in four of its last five—and their combined scoring profile points toward a higher-event game that nudges this total toward the Over. Even with Cooley and Kerfoot out for Utah, the Mammoth still lean on a core of Keller, Guenther, and a deep shooting group that helped them rank among the league’s better teams in high-danger and midrange shot volume last season, while Toronto’s top six with Matthews and Nylander has powered a 3.38 GF/G mark, scoring at least four goals in each of the last four contests. The first matchup finished 5-3 for Toronto, clearing this same 6-goal bar, and Utah’s offensive style at the Delta Center—where they drive play territorially but can trade chances—combined with Toronto’s relatively leaky 3.16 GAA and Utah’s 3.02 GF/G suggests that a 3-3 game state (and thus at worst a push) is well within reach. Playoff pressure at this stage, with both clubs on the bubble in their divisions, should encourage coaches to lean heavily on their scoring stars rather than sit back, and a rested Vejmelka against a Leafs team on the second half of a back-to-back adds some fatigue-driven defensive risk for Toronto. With market totals already shading up at some books and both power plays featuring elite shooters, Over 6 at a price of -125 earns a Grade B: a solid numbers- and matchup-supported look that still respects the possibility of a goaltending duel in a tight midseason game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:01

Given Toronto’s current four-game win streak and Utah’s respectable but less dominant recent run, the most likely script is a competitive, playoff-caliber game rather than a blowout, which makes grabbing the extra goal with the road team at +1.5 attractive even at a hefty -188. Utah’s injury list—Kerfoot out and Cooley expected to remain sidelined—reduces their ability to roll three scoring lines and consistently punish Toronto’s banged-up blue line (still missing Chris Tanev and Dakota Mermis) over 60 minutes, and in the first meeting between these clubs the Mammoth kept things tight before a late Leafs surge turned a one-goal game into a 5-3 final. Toronto has been heavily involved in one-goal affairs across the season, and Utah’s profile (3.02 GF/G, 2.83 GAA, strong home record at 11-7-2) points to them winning more with structure than runaways, especially in a midseason contest with real standings weight: the Mammoth are clinging to the final Central playoff spot, while Toronto is locked in a multi-team Atlantic dogfight where every point matters. With top-end forwards on both sides capable of answering quickly—Matthews/Nylander for the Leafs, Keller/Guenther for Utah—the extra cushion on Toronto’s side protects against a narrow home win and leverages the league-wide tendency toward one-goal results, but the steep juice and the possibility of an empty-netter tilting the margin keep this to a Grade B- value play rather than something stronger. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:01