Maple Leafs vs Penguins

The recent form tells you a lot here: Pittsburgh has won two straight and is 3-2-3 over its last eight, while Toronto is 2-6-2 in its last ten with no regulation win since early November and just coughed up another third-period lead in Washington on Friday. With Anthony Stolarz, Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo all sidelined, plus William Nylander still listed as day-to-day after missing last night’s game, the Leafs are leaning heavily on Joseph Woll behind a banged-up defense, and that’s a rough recipe against a home side whose core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Bryan Rust is intact and rolling again. Pittsburgh’s profile fits a contender more than Toronto’s right now, with top-10 numbers in goals scored and goals allowed and an elite power play facing a Leafs team that gives up a lot of shots and sits in the bottom tier defensively; even remembering that Nylander and Auston Matthews have carved up the Penguins in recent meetings, the stronger goaltending tandem (Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs), better special teams and home ice tilt this near pick’em toward the Pens at -105. I’d grade this Penguins moneyline as a B+ play: solid edge in current form and matchup quality, with fair but not spectacular value at essentially even money. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:33am

This matchup has all the ingredients for goals: Toronto is averaging north of three goals per game but allowing around three and a half with bottom-three defensive metrics in both goals and shots against, while Pittsburgh brings a top-10 offense, a power play clicking near the top of the league and multiple finishing threats in Crosby, Malkin and Rust. The Leafs’ road trip has already produced high-event games, and with Stolarz out they’ve been riding Woll hard; on the second night of a back-to-back there’s a good chance we see either a tired starter or a less-proven backup (Dennis Hildeby), while the Penguins could turn to Silovs after Jarry’s recent return from injury, which also nudges volatility upward. Historical head-to-heads lean toward offense too, with Toronto winning 6-5 in Pittsburgh last March and rallying 4-3 earlier this month on the back of multi-point nights from Nylander and Matthews, and if Nylander is able to return from illness he adds another game-breaking shooter to a Leafs attack that already drives scoring even when its team defense falters. With both clubs’ stars in the lineup, both sides on no rest, and special teams that can punish mistakes, I like Over 6 at -110 as a B-grade play: reasonably strong chance of a push at six with upside to cash if the goaltending or discipline wobbles. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:33am

If you expect another tight, star-driven game, the Penguins catching +1.5 on home ice is the safer side of this puckline, even with the heavy juice: both recent meetings have been one-goal Toronto wins (6-5 in overtime last season and 4-3 in regulation earlier this month), and Pittsburgh’s current 3-2-3 stretch plus its win in Columbus on Friday underline how often its games are decided late. Toronto’s injuries on defense and in net make them vulnerable, but their forward depth with Matthews, Nylander (if he’s back), John Tavares and Matthew Knies still makes a multi-goal Leafs blowout on the road, on the second half of a back-to-back, less likely than another one-goal sweat either way—especially against a Penguins group whose top six is healthy and whose goaltending has been stabilized by Jarry’s return alongside a capable Silovs. Add in that Pittsburgh has actually struggled to close out the back half of back-to-backs this season, which slightly caps its own blowout potential, and taking the cushion with the home dog at +1.5 makes sense, though the -260 price dings the value. I’d grade Penguins +1.5 as a B- play: fairly high probability of cashing given the matchup history and team profiles, but with limited monetary upside because of the steep odds. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:33am