Raptors vs Warriors

Golden State’s four-game winning streak, 17-6 home record and Stephen Curry’s near 28 points per game profile stand out even after Jimmy Butler’s season-ending ACL tear, especially with Toronto arriving on a two-game skid and missing RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and multiple rotation pieces. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) With Draymond Green expected back to organize the defense and playmaking, and with Curry already carrying a heavy on-ball load in their late-December meeting in Toronto, the Warriors’ offensive floor at home still looks higher than that of a Raptors group forced to lean almost entirely on Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley in a thin, travel-weary rotation. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/injuries)) At around -167, I like Golden State on the moneyline at a Grade A- confidence level: the payoff is moderate but supported by form, home-court edge and Toronto’s injury cluster. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 12:39

Toronto’s patched-together rotation without Barrett, Poeltl, Ja’Kobe Walter and Collin Murray-Boyles should drag down its typical 113.5 points-per-game output and push more deliberate halfcourt offense through Ingram and Barnes against a Warriors defense allowing about 113.3 points per night and getting Green back in the lineup. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) Golden State still scores 116.7 per game behind Curry’s elite shooting, but the loss of Butler, a banged-up backcourt and frontcourt depth (Seth Curry out, De’Anthony Melton and Gui Santos managing injuries) increases the chance of shorter rotations, slower tempo and more grinding mismatch hunting than the 226.5 total suggests. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) I’m on Under 226.5 at -118 with a Grade B confidence: injuries on both sides and midseason fatigue slightly favor a lower-scoring game, though Golden State’s three-point volatility keeps this from being a higher-tier play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 12:39

Draymond Green anchoring Golden State’s small-ball looks next to Curry has helped produce a +3.4 point differential and strong late-game performance at home, and facing a Raptors team on a two-game skid that must replace Barrett’s wing scoring and Poeltl’s interior presence with thin frontcourt depth gives the Warriors a clear path to winning by multiple possessions. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) Toronto’s earlier nine-game heater has cooled, and with several rotation pieces sidelined they’ll be leaning heavily on Ingram and Barnes to create against a Warriors side riding a four-game win streak and still stocked with shooters and secondary creators like Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield even after Butler’s injury. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) Given Golden State’s 17-6 home mark and Toronto’s compromised lineup, I’m comfortable laying -3.5 at -110 with a Grade B confidence, expecting the Warriors to generate enough third- and fourth-quarter separation to cover the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 12:39