Maple Leafs vs Red Wings

With Detroit riding a three-game winning streak and Toronto having just snapped a three-game skid with a 6-3 win over Pittsburgh, the form guide tilts toward the Red Wings on home ice, especially with Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane leading a deep attack that has been driving results all month. Toronto’s blue line and crease are still stretched, with Anthony Stolarz, Brandon Carlo, Dakota Mermis and Marshall Rifai all on injured reserve and Dennis Hildeby seeing more work than planned, while Detroit’s main concern is Kane’s recent day-to-day status and Mason Appleton’s absence — hits to their depth, but not their core. Auston Matthews has historically torched the Wings (well over a point per game against them), and William Nylander has also piled up production in this matchup, so the Leafs’ upset path is clearly through their stars, yet Detroit’s current confidence, healthier spine and John Gibson’s stabilizing presence in goal justify laying Detroit Red Wings -140 on the moneyline; grade this a B+ pick for a favorite that should win more often than the implied odds but is still exposed to Toronto’s high-end scoring. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:27

Detroit’s recent run of games has been wide open — multi-goal wins over Washington followed by a 4-3 overtime comeback against Dallas — and now they face a Toronto team that just broke out of a slump with six goals against Pittsburgh and has played most of the season with one of the league’s worst goals-against rates under Craig Berube. The Leafs’ defensive injuries (three defensemen plus Stolarz on IR) leave Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson logging heavy minutes in front of a goaltending group that has been league-average at best, while Detroit’s own offense is fueled by an elite power play and a top line of Larkin, Raymond and DeBrincat that consistently pushes pace, even if Kane’s day-to-day status trims some secondary scoring. Given Matthews’ and Nylander’s long-term production against the Wings, plus Dylan Larkin’s strong scoring history versus Toronto, it’s hard to trust either side to keep this in a tight, low-event structure, so the lean is to Over 6.5 at 100, graded a B based on the combination of offensive firepower and defensive fragility on both sides at a fair but not discounted price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:27

Although Detroit is the rightful favorite, this matchup has a track record of tight finishes — including last spring’s 4-3 overtime win by Toronto — and the current form suggests another game where the Leafs can hang around even if they ultimately fall short. The Wings’ three-game heater and overall 22-13-3 record, plus the addition of John Gibson behind an improving defense, point toward a higher floor, but Patrick Kane’s day-to-day status and Mason Appleton’s injury slightly thin their middle six against a Leafs team that still rolls out Matthews, Nylander, John Tavares and emerging play-driver Matthew Knies. Toronto’s battered back end and Stolarz’s injury are real concerns, yet their scoring depth and Matthews’ dominant historical production versus Detroit make a one-goal loss entirely live, so taking Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 at -195 earns a B grade as a safer, lower-upside way to back Toronto’s firepower and the likelihood that this rivalry game stays within a single goal. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/12/2025 09:27