Maple Leafs vs Avalanche

Colorado’s 19-0-2 home record and 17-game home winning streak collide with a Toronto side riding a 7-0-2 point streak and three straight wins, but the matchup and context still favor laying the price with the Avalanche at -200. With Devon Toews, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mackenzie Blackwood out, Colorado is missing key pieces, yet the core of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and a deep forward group has continued to drive elite results at five-on-five and special teams, especially in this building, where they’ve outscored opponents by more than two goals per game. Toronto’s surge has been fueled by Joseph Woll’s .920+ goaltending and the return of William Nylander, but the Leafs are down shutdown defender Chris Tanev plus depth pieces Dakota Joshua and Dakota Mermis, which is a serious concern against an Avs offense that just hung eight on Ottawa and four on Columbus and ranks near the top of the league in goals per game. Historically, MacKinnon has hurt Toronto at Ball Arena, including last spring’s 7-4 Avalanche win where Valeri Nichushkin had a hat trick and Auston Matthews still couldn’t drag the Leafs across the line, and while Matthews has produced four points in his last two versus Colorado, altitude and Colorado’s forecheck have tilted the ice in the Avs’ favor. Both teams have played 44 games, so playoff seeding is real: Toronto is scrapping for an Eastern wild-card spot on a tough four-game road swing, while Colorado is front-running for the Presidents’ Trophy and has every incentive to keep banking regulation wins at home. Given that most books are now hanging Colorado in the -230 to -260 range, the -200 number you’re using bakes in some extra value on a side I’d already project north of 65% to win outright, which is why this moneyline recommendation earns an A- for confidence and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 09:43

The total is sitting at 6.5 with the over generally around +100 and the under near -115, and despite the offensive names on both benches, I lean to the under 6.5 at -115. Colorado and Toronto combine for roughly 7.4 goals per game on the season, but they allow only about 5.3 against, and Colorado in particular has turned Ball Arena into a defensive straitjacket, giving up under two goals per game at home while still scoring in bunches; that profile, plus a top-ranked penalty kill, quietly supports more unders than you’d expect from a team this explosive. Toronto’s current heater has been driven by tighter defensive play and Woll’s 2.5-ish goals-against with a .921 save percentage, and five of the Leafs’ last seven have stayed under the number as they’ve shifted toward more structurally sound road hockey, even with their recent 6-5 track meet in Winnipeg skewing perceptions. Injuries to high-end defensive pieces on both sides (Toews for Colorado, Tanev for Toronto) do create some volatility, and the historical trend in Denver has been very high scoring, but the market’s consistent shading toward the under and model projections clustering just below 6.5 suggest a slight edge to a lower-event game relative to the headline talent. With both clubs at or past the halfway mark and every point mattering for playoff positioning—Colorado protecting home ice in a Presidents’ Trophy race and Toronto trying to grind out road points to stay in the Eastern mix—there’s extra incentive for disciplined, situational hockey once either side gets a lead, which tends to suppress late scoring bursts. Because of the firepower on both rosters and the possibility of special-teams spikes, I’m grading Under 6.5 at -115 as a B: a modest edge with decent value, but not something to overexpose your bankroll to. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 09:43

Puckline prices are hovering around Toronto +1.5 at about -110 and Colorado -1.5 around -105, and with the way the Avalanche have been steamrolling teams at home, I like Colorado -1.5 at -105 to complement the moneyline. Colorado has won 17 straight at Ball Arena and is 19-0-2 there, with a significant share of those victories coming by multiple goals as they routinely build shot and chance volume, then pull away in the second half of games; the recent 8-2 demolition of Ottawa and 4-0 shutout of Columbus are just the latest examples of their ability to turn close contests into blowouts. Toronto’s point streak is real, but many of those results have come at home, and they’ve been far shakier away from Scotiabank Arena, including a 1-5 skid in their last six road games and a tendency to leak chances when chasing, which is exactly how you get burned on empty-netters that matter only to the puckline. The injury sheet again leans slightly toward Colorado’s side of this wager: losing Devon Toews and Gabriel Landeskog is significant, but the Avs still roll out MacKinnon, Makar, Josh Manson and a deep forward corps that just added Brock Nelson and Martin Necas, while Toronto’s loss of Tanev and key depth forwards makes it harder to lock down the neutral zone and protect that +1.5 if they fall behind. Historically, Ball Arena has not been kind to the Leafs either—last season’s 7-4 Avalanche win saw Colorado cover the -1.5 despite a three-point night from Matthews, and MacKinnon plus Valeri Nichushkin have consistently driven offense against this core. Given Colorado’s dominant multi-goal win profile at home, Toronto’s shaky recent road form, and the likelihood that late-game score effects tilt toward an additional Avalanche tally rather than a backdoor cover, I grade Avs -1.5 (-105) as a B+: more variance than the moneyline but still a strong, plus-value way to back the league’s best home team. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 09:43