Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets

William Nylander drags a depleted Toronto forward group into Columbus tonight with the Leafs on a two-game skid and the Blue Jackets also reeling from back-to-back losses after a hot stretch that included two wins over Toronto this month. With ESPN’s current rosters showing Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies and Nicolas Roy all close to returning but still listed as injured or on IR, Toronto is far from full strength, yet Columbus is missing captain Boone Jenner on IR and has leading scorer Kirill Marchenko day-to-day, which really bites into their top-six and power play. Columbus has leaned heavily on Adam Fantilli, who already has three points in two games against the Leafs this season, and on Elvis Merzlikins, who posted a .917 save percentage in his lone 2025-26 start versus Toronto, but the Jackets’ overall defensive profile (3.26 goals against per game, 28th-ranked penalty kill) remains shaky. Toronto’s own defensive numbers are worse, but their offense still carries more high-end shot volume and finishing talent with Nylander and John Tavares leading the way, and getting even a limited version of Matthews back would tilt the matchup sharply. Given that combination of mutual losing streaks, key injuries that arguably hurt Columbus’ scoring depth a bit more, and Toronto’s higher offensive ceiling, I like the contrarian side and will take Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline at 105 as a value play at around a 52–53% win probability, which warrants a B+ grade for both likelihood and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:49am

These teams’ current statistical profiles scream volatility: Toronto is scoring 3.36 goals per game but giving up 3.73 (31st in the league), while Columbus sits at 2.87 for and 3.26 against, with both penalty kills in the bottom half and the Jackets’ kill near the basement. Even with Matthews and Knies still not fully cleared, the Leafs’ attack is being driven by Nylander’s 29 points and Tavares’ 12 goals, and they continue to generate enough quality to overcome mediocre special teams, which matters against a Columbus group whose PK has been bleeding chances and whose goaltending has been merely average. On the Jackets’ side, Fantilli has emerged as a legitimate matchup problem for Toronto with three points in two games against them this season, and depth scorers like Dmitri Voronkov and Miles Wood give them enough secondary punch that they’ve already put up six and three goals, respectively, in their two earlier meetings with the Leafs. The injury absences of Jenner and a banged-up Marchenko cap Columbus’ offensive ceiling somewhat, but they also force more minutes onto less reliable defensive players, while Merzlikins comes in with a 3.37 GAA and .900 save percentage, numbers that don’t exactly suggest a lockdown game. With both teams trending toward high-event hockey, recent head-to-heads hitting five and nine total goals, and suspect defensive structure on both benches, I’m leaning Over 6 at -120 and grading it a B given the juice but strong matchup-driven path to at least a 6–3, 4–3, or 5–2 type final. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:49am

Given the way these teams have played over the past few weeks, I’m expecting another tight one-goal script more often than not, which nudges me toward Toronto +1.5 on the puckline even at a steep -250. Toronto’s recent schedule is littered with single-goal decisions—3-2 and 4-3 losses and wins against opponents like the Blues, Kings, Penguins and Flames—and even their earlier 3-2 OT loss at home to Columbus fits that pattern, suggesting that the Leafs tend to hang around despite their defensive issues. Columbus, meanwhile, has seen a similar run of coin-flip finals (4-3, 3-2 and 5-4 results in both directions), and with Jenner on IR plus Marchenko day-to-day, their ability to blow teams out is somewhat compromised relative to earlier in the month when they hung a 6-3 win on Toronto at Nationwide. The Jackets’ goaltending tandem of Merzlikins and Jet Greaves has been serviceable but not dominant, Toronto is still icing legitimate top-end talent even with several regulars listed as out or questionable, and both benches have reasons to shorten the bench and lean on their best players in a game that matters for stabilizing shaky early-season records. Still, laying -250 on any NHL puckline is inherently risky from a value standpoint, so while I like Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250) as a way to align with a close-game expectation that dovetails with the moneyline lean, I can only give this a C+ grade because the price leaves little margin for error. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:49am