Lightning vs Blues

The Lightning come in on an 11-game winning streak while the Blues are fresh off a 3-0 shutout of Carolina but still sit below .500 and 13th in the West, so current form clearly tilts toward Tampa. With both clubs well past the 41-game mark (Tampa at 45 games, St. Louis at 47), the playoff stakes are very different: the Lightning are fighting to protect the top seed in the East, whereas the Blues are clinging to the fringes of the wild-card race, and that urgency hasn’t translated into consistent results for St. Louis. Injuries are a major part of this handicap: Tampa is missing Brayden Point plus three veteran blueliners in Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Scott Sabourin, but the active roster on ESPN still shows a deep forward group led by Kucherov and Jake Guentzel, while the Blues are without top scorer and power-play engine Robert Thomas along with Pius Suter and Mathieu Joseph, and Philip Broberg is only a game-time consideration, leaving them thin down the middle. Head-to-head, the Lightning are 6-3-1 in their last 10 against St. Louis, but their poor 1-5 record in the last six trips to Enterprise Center is mitigated by how limited this current Blues offense is (117 goals in 47 games, worst in the league) compared with Tampa’s top-tier attack and top-two defense. Kucherov’s history against St. Louis (21 points in 19 games, including 2 goals and 5 assists over his last five) reinforces the talent gap at the top of each lineup, especially with Thomas out. At a moneyline of -188 for Tampa Bay and +150 for St. Louis, the price on the favorite implies roughly mid-60s win probability; given Tampa’s current level and 17-4-3 road record versus the Blues’ 7-12-3 home mark, there’s still a small edge in backing the superior side despite the road spot, so I’m comfortable recommending Lightning -188 on the moneyline with an A- grade for strong likelihood but only moderate value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:28

The total is sitting at 5.5 with the Over priced around -118 and the Under near -104, and the recent scoring profiles plus scheduling spot point slightly toward goals despite some key injuries. Tampa Bay is averaging roughly 3.5 goals for and 2.6 against per game (158 GF, 115 GA in 45 games), while St. Louis is around 2.5 for and 3.4 against (117 GF, 159 GA in 47), giving an expected baseline of about six combined goals, which lines up with how often these teams have cleared this number (the Lightning have gone over 5.5 in 26 of 45, the Blues in 24 of 47). Both sides have been reliable Over teams in their current roles: Tampa is 14-10 to the Over on the road and St. Louis 13-9 to the Over at home, with recent 30-day splits heavily skewed to high-scoring games in those same settings. Against that, we do have countervailing factors: the Blues’ offense is badly compromised with Thomas, Suter and Joseph out, and Joel Hofer has been excellent in goal with a sub-3.00 GAA and multiple shutouts, while Tampa’s blue line is missing Hedman and McDonagh, which can cut either way (worse defending but also less clean puck-movement into offense). Still, Kucherov and Guentzel driving one of the league’s most efficient attacks against a St. Louis team that bleeds chances and ranks near the bottom in goals against and penalty kill suggests the Lightning can do most of the heavy lifting in a game where the Blues only need a couple to get this past 5.5. Because the Over is already juiced and relies somewhat on Tampa continuing to finish at an elite rate against a hot goaltender, I grade Over 5.5 at -118 as a B: a solid but not premium edge in a matchup that profiles as 4-2 or 4-3 more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:28

Even while backing Tampa on the moneyline, the puckline picture is a bit different, and the combination of streaks, injuries and venue makes Blues +1.5 at around -162 an attractive way to fade a full blowout. The Lightning’s 11-game win streak and 17-4-3 road record are undeniable, but this is the back half of a long January road swing, and their last several wins have already started to tighten up on the scoreboard, while St. Louis is 11-9-5 at home and just shut out a top Eastern contender, showing they can drag better teams into lower-margin games. Historically, Tampa is only 1-5 in its last six visits to St. Louis despite owning the series overall, and many of those contests have ended within a single goal; that trend dovetails with a current Blues roster that, even without Thomas and several regulars, leans on big minutes from Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk plus strong goaltending from Hofer and Jordan Binnington to stay within striking distance rather than trade chances in track meets. With Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh all sidelined for the Lightning per the latest ESPN injury report, Tampa’s lineup still has a clear finishing edge thanks to Kucherov and Brandon Hagel, but its ability to pull away late on the road is somewhat diminished, especially against a home underdog that plays a lot of one-goal games and desperately needs every point to remain in the wild-card conversation. Given the moneyline of -188/+150, a derivative price of about -162 on Blues +1.5 reflects a very high probability this stays within a goal, and I see enough room above that implied edge to recommend St. Louis +1.5 with a B+ grade, expecting a Lightning win by a single goal more often than the market is pricing in. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:28