Lightning vs Penguins

Nikita Kucherov is dragging Tampa Bay into Pittsburgh on a 10-game heater, and even with the second night of a back-to-back, I’m still siding with the Lightning on the moneyline at -138. With both clubs hovering around the halfway mark of the schedule, Tampa’s 27-13-3 start and top-tier goal differential give them a clearer path toward locking up Atlantic seeding, while the Penguins’ recent two-game skid after a six-game tear raises the stakes of this homestand in their wild-card chase. The biggest concern is Brayden Point’s likely absence after his knee injury in Philadelphia, but the Lightning remain deep down the middle and on the wings, and Kucherov’s career production against Pittsburgh plus Andrei Vasilevskiy’s strong record versus the Penguins offset that loss more than Pittsburgh’s own injury issues on the wings and blue line. Sidney Crosby’s long-term success against Tampa and a strong home power play make this a dangerous spot, yet Tampa’s combination of elite five-on-five scoring, structured defending, and proven road form tilt the matchup toward the visitors. I’m backing Tampa Bay Lightning -138 on the moneyline with an A- grade, reflecting high confidence and a solid but not spectacular return for laying moderate juice on the better overall team. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:27. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nhl/red-hot-nikita-kucherov-leads-lightning-by-flyers-10th-straight-win--flm-2026-01-13/?utm_source=openai))

With Tampa Bay averaging well north of 3.5 goals per game and allowing under 2.7, and Pittsburgh sitting just over three scored and just under three allowed, the underlying numbers point toward a game that leans above the total of 6 despite elite goaltending on both sides. Tampa’s current win streak has been fueled by multi-goal nights from Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel, and even if Point’s injury trims some finishing punch, the Lightning’s depth scoring and transition game should still stress a Penguins team that has quietly played a lot of high-event hockey when its top six and third-ranked power play are rolling. The Penguins’ home splits and dangerous top unit featuring Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson suggest they can punish a Lightning penalty kill that will be dealing with fatigue after last night’s physical game, and recent head-to-head meetings have tended to open up once one side breaks through. Given both teams’ season-long combined goal rates, special-teams firepower, and the playoff-weighted urgency of this midseason Eastern clash, I’m taking Over 6 at -125 with a B+ grade, acknowledging the extra juice but seeing enough offensive upside on both benches to justify paying it. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:27. ([foxsports1400wheeling.iheart.com](https://foxsports1400wheeling.iheart.com/content/2026-01-13-lightning-vs-penguins-prediction-picks-jan-13/))

Even while I like Tampa to escape with the two points, the way these teams profile right now makes Pittsburgh +1.5 on the puckline at -210 the side I prefer in this market. The Penguins have banked points in the large majority of their recent games against Tampa and own a respectable 10-7-5 home mark, while the Lightning have already logged a significant number of one-goal decisions, a pattern that often shows up when a strong road team plays a structured opponent with good goaltending and a top-tier power play. With Brayden Point likely out, Tampa’s ceiling is still high thanks to Kucherov and an elite blue line, but their margin for error shrinks against a Penguins lineup centered around Crosby and Malkin that just got healthier down the middle and will treat this as an early playoff barometer in a tight Metropolitan race. Pittsburgh’s ability to generate offense from the back end with Karlsson and Kris Letang, combined with solid work from their goalie tandem this month, gives them multiple paths to staying within a goal even if the Lightning’s current form ultimately carries the night. I’ll take Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 at -210 with a B grade, reflecting a very high likelihood of cashing but relatively limited monetary value given the steep price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:27. ([foxsports1400wheeling.iheart.com](https://foxsports1400wheeling.iheart.com/content/2026-01-13-lightning-vs-penguins-prediction-picks-jan-13/))