Lightning vs Rangers

With Tampa Bay on a six-game heater and 13-3-0 over its last 16, and the Rangers newly hot with a three-game streak after a four-game skid, the moneyline at Lightning -105 vs Rangers -115 still tilts slightly toward the road side given Tampa’s current form and 7-2-2 road record. New York’s underlying season profile is still that of a low-scoring team badly hurt by a dreadful home start (they were 1-7-1 at MSG not long ago), even if Panarin, Zibanejad and Adam Fox have driven a recent offensive spike capped by a 6-2 statement win in Boston. Tampa’s injury list is scary on defense, but the Lightning have kept rolling anyway behind Vasilevskiy’s strong November and a forward group that now runs two dangerous scoring lines, with Kucherov historically over a point per game against the Rangers and Jake Guentzel in rhythm, while Shesterkin’s excellent career record and 2.26 GAA versus Tampa argues this stays closer to a coin flip than their 7-3 road blowout in Tampa earlier this month. Given the combination of current streaks, the Rangers’ still-shaky home baseline, and a small price edge on the better 5‑on‑5 team right now, I grade Lightning -105 as a B+ pick—modest edge with decent payout in what should still be a tight matchup. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:23am

The total of 6.5 with Over 100 and Under -120 is shaded toward a lower-scoring script, but the recent form and matchup variables lean me to Over 6.5 at even money, especially with Tampa’s top three defensemen (Hedman, McDonagh, Cernak) out and the Lightning still scoring at a pace north of 3.3 goals per game while conceding around 2.7 through their 15-7-2 start. New York’s season-long goals-per-game number (2.69 with just 2.58 allowed) screams defensive team, yet their last week shows a different story: three straight wins with 4 and 6 goals on the road plus that earlier 7-3 explosion in Tampa, driven by a humming Panarin–Trocheck power play and improved finishing from Lafreniere and Cuylle. Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy are both capable of stealing a low-event game, but the combination of Tampa’s aggressive transition game, a banged-up Lightning blue line forcing depth minutes, and a Rangers attack finally finishing its chances against weakened defenses makes a 4-3 type scoreline at least as likely as the market implies, and getting 100 instead of laying -120 on the Under gives this Over a solid value edge. I grade Over 6.5 (100) as an A- position for bettors comfortable with a variance-driven, offense-forward matinee. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:23am

Given how closely matched these rosters are when healthy and how strong both goaltenders are—Shesterkin with a career 7-3-1 record, 2.26 GAA and .924 save percentage vs Tampa, and Vasilevskiy back in elite form for a Lightning team allowing under 2.7 goals per night—the most likely outcomes skew heavily toward a one-goal game, which makes the Lightning +1.5 puckline at -210 the side I’d rather hold than laying Rangers -1.5 at a big underdog number. The Rangers have struggled to separate at home all season despite the recent road surge, and their blue line is still missing Borgen while leaning heavily on Fox and Gavrikov, whereas Tampa’s decimated defense and road back-to-back spot raise the chances of a Rangers win without necessarily increasing the probability of a multi-goal margin. With Kucherov’s long track record of producing against New York and Tampa’s depth scoring from Hagel, Guentzel, Gourde and Paul, the Lightning profile as a team that can either win outright or at least keep this within one thanks to their offensive ceiling and goaltending—yet the juice at -210 caps the value, so I can only grade Lightning +1.5 as a B- play: high likelihood of cashing but modest long-term edge at this price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/11/2025 09:23am