Lightning vs Islanders

The Tampa Bay Lightning roll into UBS on a two-game road heater with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point back driving a top six that just hung 14 goals on Montreal and New Jersey, but I still lean to the Islanders at 110 on the moneyline. New York has already taken the first two meetings of this mini-series (2-1 at UBS, 2-0 in Tampa), with Ilya Sorokin allowing just one goal on 63 shots and posting a .960 save percentage over his three December starts, while the Isles have won five of their last six overall and tightened up structurally under Patrick Roy. Tampa’s blue line is badly thinned with Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak all on injured reserve and Andrei Vasilevskiy still sidelined, leaving Jonas Johansson to start behind a patchwork defense that now leans heavily on Darren Raddysh, J.J. Moser and Charle-Edouard D’Astous, whereas the Islanders’ injury issues are more concentrated up front with Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri out but enough by-committee production coming from Anders Lee, Anthony Duclair, Calum Ritchie and a balanced back end. With the Isles 9-6-2 at home, the Lightning 10-4-2 on the road, and Kucherov/Point’s historically strong numbers against New York now facing a Sorokin who has clearly solved this matchup, I rate Islanders 110 as a B+ play: a slight edge over a coin flip on win probability plus plus-money in a fixture they’ve controlled in terms of goaltending and recent head-to-head results. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:33([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/nyi/new-york-islanders))

For the total, I’m going against Tampa Bay’s recent scoring binge and looking to Under 5.5 at 115 in what profiles as another tight, goalie-driven matinee. The first two meetings in this three-game December set finished 2-1 and 2-0 to the Islanders, with Sorokin giving up just one goal on 63 Lightning shots, while the Isles’ season line of 95 goals for and 88 allowed through 32 games points to an overall environment just under three goals per side once you strip out empty-netters. Tampa’s attack has clearly rediscovered its rhythm with Kucherov, Point and Brandon Hagel piling up points in back-to-back blowouts of the Canadiens and Devils, but those came against leaky defenses, and now the Bolts face a New York group that’s been quietly excellent at 5-on-5 with heavy minutes from Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock and a penalty kill built around a locked-in Sorokin. At the same time, Bo Horvat’s absence removes the Islanders’ leading goal-scorer and net-front focal point on the power play, and with Tampa still missing Hedman and Vasilevskiy, Jon Cooper has every incentive to keep this third meeting in 12 days compact rather than trade chances against a team that’s already shown it can suffocate his group at UBS Arena. I’m grading Under 5.5 at 115 as a B: the Over is appropriately juiced off the Lightning’s last two box scores, but the specific matchup, goaltending form, and current injury picture still tilt value toward a low-event contest. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:33([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/recap/_/gameId/401802765?utm_source=openai))

On the puckline, I’d rather swallow the juice with Islanders +1.5 at -240 than chase Lightning -1.5 at 196, given how these teams have actually played each other and the way their current rosters line up. Both prior meetings this season were essentially one-goal games until a late empty-netter, and New York’s recent 5-1 stretch has featured Sorokin in full control while Roy’s structure has kept them out of blowout territory against quality opposition, even with Horvat and Palmieri now sidelined. Tampa’s last two wins were multi-goal routs of the Canadiens and Devils, but they also ended a run where the Lightning were shut out in consecutive games (one of them by these Isles), and they’re still without three key defensemen plus Vasilevskiy, which raises the variance in their own end and makes it harder to consistently stretch margins on the road against a disciplined, heavy-cycle team at UBS. With the Bolts’ elite road record and surging top six offset by New York’s recent head-to-head dominance and home-ice advantage, a one-goal margin either way feels like the modal outcome, so taking the Islanders with the extra goal is a high-probability, low-upside way to get exposure. I’m grading Islanders +1.5 at -240 as a C+: it’s a solid safety play or parlay anchor, but the price keeps it from being a premium standalone bet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:33([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/_/name/nyi/new-york-islanders))