Tampa Bay vs New York

Tampa Bay on the moneyline at -140 gets the nod, with the combination of a seven-game win streak, a +19 goal differential and a dominant recent head-to-head profile against both the Islanders and Ilya Sorokin offsetting the risks of a banged-up Lightning blue line and road ice. The Bolts have caught fire after a slow start, outscoring opponents by nearly a 3:2 clip behind Kucherov and Guentzel, while Sorokin comes in just 3-7-0 with a 3.43 GAA and sub-.880 save percentage in his career vs Tampa Bay, and Kucherov (37 points in 32 games) plus Brayden Point (23 points in 23 games) have consistently carved up this matchup. On the other side, the Islanders are mired in a 1-3-1 stretch on this homestand, down Barzal, Palmieri and Romanov, and asking Horvat to carry a top-heavy attack that has managed only four total goals over its last three outings in regulation, which is a tough recipe even against a Lightning defense missing key pieces. Laying -140 isn’t cheap, but in a spot where the healthier, deeper and much hotter side has the better goaltending history and elite shooters who repeatedly torch this opponent, the expected edge is meaningful enough to justify an A- grade for both win probability and solid, if unspectacular, return on investment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:28am

With the total sitting at 6 and both sides priced at -110, the under leans slightly stronger given the collision of Tampa Bay’s improved defensive structure and New York’s shorthanded offense that’s trending in the wrong direction. The Lightning’s underlying numbers — 84 goals for and 65 against through 25 games — scream balanced rather than purely run-and-gun, and recent outings have featured Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson holding foes like Calgary and the Rangers to a combined two non-empty-net goals as the team clamps down once it gets a lead. The Islanders’ side of the equation is where this total really tilts: their season-long goal differential is essentially break-even, but over the last three games they’ve produced just five goals in all situations while giving up eight, and now they’re missing Barzal’s play-driving, Palmieri’s finishing and Romanov’s transition work on the back end. Even with Tampa’s firepower and some key injuries on its own blue line, this projects closer to a grind where the Lightning punish a thin Isles lineup, manage the game with a lead and keep overall scoring in the 3–2 neighborhood more often than not, which makes under 6 at standard juice a B-grade play — reasonably strong, but not elite, given Tampa’s capability to run away with games if the dam breaks. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:28am

For the puckline, Tampa Bay -1.5 at 170 is a higher-variance angle that still merits a B- grade because the Lightning’s current form and the Islanders’ injury situation both point toward a meaningful chance of a multi-goal road win at a rewarding price. Tampa’s +19 goal differential, recent run of decisive victories (scorelines like 5-1, 6-3 and 4-1) and long-term edge in this matchup — including a 5-3 win last March where Point, Kucherov and Guentzel drove the offense — all indicate that when the Bolts are rolling, they often separate late via sustained pressure and empty-net opportunities. New York, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five with three of those losses coming by at least two goals, and the current roster is missing or diminished at several key spots: Barzal and Palmieri up front, Romanov on the blue line and Varlamov in goal, leaving Horvat, Anders Lee and depth call-ups to shoulder heavy minutes against a deep Tampa forward group that historically out-skates them. Still, UBS Arena has produced its share of tight, low-event games and an Islanders team with Sorokin in net is always capable of turning this into a 3-2 grind that burns puckline tickets, so the recommendation leans on a combination of recent scoring trends, matchup history and price-based upside: Lightning -1.5 is riskier than the moneyline but offers enough multi-goal-win equity to justify the shot at 170, albeit with only a B- confidence rating. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:28am