Lightning vs Devils

Nikita Kucherov and the Lightning come into Newark having just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 6-1 surge in Montreal, while the Devils halted their own five-game skid with a 4-3 road win in Ottawa, setting up a matchup of teams trying to stabilize after opposite recent runs. Tampa Bay’s underlying profile still looks stronger: they’re allowing just 2.53 goals per game versus New Jersey’s 3.07, while scoring 3.13 to the Devils’ 2.87, and they’ve been excellent away from home at 9-4-2, matching up closely with the Devils’ solid 9-4-1 mark at Prudential Center. The injury sheet tilts slightly toward the Bolts despite Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak all on injured reserve and Victor Hedman listed day-to-day, because New Jersey is missing Jack Hughes along with Brett Pesce and several depth forwards, stripping a lot of play-driving punch from the top of their lineup. Historically this matchup leans Tampa: they went 2-0-1 against New Jersey last season, Kucherov has piled up 41 points in 27 career games vs the Devils, and this year’s series is tied 1-1 but includes a 5-1 Lightning win plus two multi-goal decisions overall, with Darren Raddysh already at four points in two meetings. With the Bolts’ deeper, healthier top six, a hotter road goaltender tandem than New Jersey’s inconsistent Jake Allen/Jacob Markstrom duo, and a modest price at -135 that implies a win probability only slightly above what their team stats and road form suggest, I like Tampa Bay on the moneyline but still respect New Jersey’s home ice enough to cap this as a B+ rather than an A-level edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:27am

With the total sitting at 6 and both sides priced at -110, the combination of recent trends, injury situations on the back end, and how this matchup has played out so far nudges me toward the Over. The Lightning’s defensive numbers (2.53 goals against per game) look strong on paper, but they’re now without Vasilevskiy plus key defenders McDonagh and Cernak, and Hedman is nursing an injury, which puts a lot of pressure on Jonas Johansson and the remaining blue line to keep suppressing chances over 60 minutes. New Jersey’s offense has been inconsistent and is missing Jack Hughes, yet they just broke through with four goals in Ottawa, and their power play has been more efficient than Tampa’s while the Devils’ penalty kill has lagged, a recipe for special-teams scoring in both directions given the Bolts’ top-end talent. Head-to-head this season the totals have landed on 8 and 6 goals (5-3 Devils, 5-1 Lightning), and the underlying team scoring averages (3.13 for Tampa, 2.87 for New Jersey) point right at a 6-goal baseline before accounting for depleted blue lines and goaltending uncertainty. I expect the Devils’ depth and recent third-line spark to produce enough offense to keep up with Kucherov, Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel, making a 4-2 or 4-3 type game a reasonable expectation, so I lean to Over 6 at -110 with a solid but not overwhelming B grade, acknowledging some risk if New Jersey’s injury-riddled lineup goes cold again. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:27am

Given a puckline of Lightning -1.5 at +205 and Devils +1.5 at -250, the safer side is clearly New Jersey plus the goals, but the combination of form, injuries, and matchup history pushes me toward the higher-upside Bolts -1.5 as a B- value play. The Devils’ recent five-game skid featured four multi-goal losses (5-3, 3-0, 3-0, 4-1) and exposed how vulnerable they can be without Jack Hughes and several other regulars, especially when chasing games and stretching their already thin blue line and goaltending. Tampa Bay, despite missing Vasilevskiy and multiple veteran defenders, just showed they can still snowball on a vulnerable opponent with that 6-1 road win in Montreal, and both meetings between these teams this season have been decided by at least two goals (5-3 Devils, 5-1 Lightning), suggesting that when either side gets on top, the game tends to open up. With Kucherov, Point and Hagel driving a deeper top nine than New Jersey can currently counter, plus an historically strong Lightning core against the Devils and Tampa’s 9-4-2 road mark indicating they’re comfortable pushing for separation late, I’m willing to take the longer price on the Bolts to win by two or more, grading it B- because the probability of a one-goal Tampa victory or a tight Devils upset is still significant and the variance here is higher than on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:27am