Lightning vs Canadiens

With Tampa Bay riding a four-game losing streak, shut out in each of its last two outings and flying in for the second half of a road back-to-back, while Montreal has lost three of five but just had a two-game win streak snapped, the situational edge leans toward the home side. The Lightning are without Andrei Vasilevskiy, Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh, forcing Jonas Johansson and a thinned blue line into heavy work again, whereas the Canadiens’ absences (Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle) are significant but largely in areas where they’ve already adjusted their rotation and given Jakub Dobes a bigger role. Brayden Point has historically torched Montreal with 24 points in 29 career games, and Kucherov’s elite shot and playmaking profile always threaten to flip any matchup, but Montreal’s top line of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield has been driving results and generating volume against Tampa over multiple seasons, and they get last change at home against a tired defense. Add in that the Lightning offense has looked out of sync since injuries hit, while Montreal’s goaltending has held up despite Samuel Montembeault’s recent illness, and the modest favorite price on the Canadiens at -125 is reasonable but not a slam dunk, hence a Moneyline grade of B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:23am

Tampa Bay’s four-game slide and back-to-back shutouts might suggest a dip toward an Under, but the streak context actually sets up a potential scoring rebound on both sides in this spot, especially with the Lightning leaning on Johansson again and likely chasing a statement response, while Montreal is coming off a 4-3 loss following a stretch where it allowed at least four goals in several recent defeats. Vasilevskiy’s absence removes Tampa’s biggest brake on totals, and with Cernak and McDonagh still on injured reserve, this blue line is softer in front of the net than the pricing on the Under would usually imply, just as the Canadiens remain without defensive stabilizer Guhle and will either ride Dobes on short rest or return to a recently ill Montembeault. Historically, Point has produced consistently against Montreal and Kucherov has logged heavy, high-leverage minutes in this matchup, while Caufield has averaged more than three shots per game versus Tampa and remains the Habs’ primary finisher, giving both teams multiple paths to three goals even in a relatively tight contest. Given Tampa’s high-danger offensive profile from last season largely intact up front, Montreal’s defensive leaks, and a total of 6.5 with the Over at 100, there’s enough offensive ceiling and goaltending uncertainty to justify a lean to Over 6.5 at plus money, but the recent scoring drought for the Lightning and Montreal’s reliance on Dobes keep this only at a B- confidence level. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:23am

The current form lines point to Montreal—Tampa Bay has dropped four straight and been blanked in each of its last two, while the Canadiens have at least stabilized with wins in three of their last five—but those same streaks, layered on top of injuries, frame this as a likely one-goal game rather than a blowout. The Lightning are missing Vasilevskiy plus key defenders Cernak and McDonagh, which hurts their ability to protect leads, yet they still roll out a forward core led by Point, Kucherov, Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel that has historically generated strong five-on-five results against Montreal, and Point in particular has been productive across nearly 30 career meetings with the Canadiens. Montreal, for its part, is without Laine, Newhook and Guhle and is juggling a crease where Montembeault is day-to-day and Dobes is shouldering heavy recent usage, leaving them vulnerable to a late push even if they control stretches of play; Suzuki and Caufield can exploit Tampa’s weakened right side, but Tampa’s top six is good enough to keep this close in the third period more often than not. Because the Canadiens deserve to be small home favorites yet profile more as a one-goal winner than a frequent multi-goal hammer, grabbing Lightning +1.5 at -250 makes sense structurally but carries poor price-to-reward value, which pulls this Puckline recommendation down to a C+ despite a high probability of cashing the ticket. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:23am