Lightning vs Kings

Tampa Bay’s five-game heater and 12-4-3 road mark set up nicely against a Kings team that has lost seven of nine and is coming off a 5-2 beating in Colorado, even though Los Angeles has taken the last two meetings from the Lightning behind Adrian Kempe’s clutch scoring and strong goaltending. The big counterpoint is Tampa’s blue line health: Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Emil Lilleberg are all on injured reserve, forcing heavy minutes onto J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak, but the Lightning have still posted a +26 goal differential behind Kucherov, Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel driving an attack that can punish a Kings squad whose overall goal differential sits barely above water. With Darcy Kuemper still on injured reserve and Los Angeles leaking chances during this slump, I’m willing to back the hotter, deeper offense as a short road underdog despite L.A.’s recent 2-1 wins in the series. Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline at 110, graded a B for combining a reasonable edge with plus money but carrying some risk because of Tampa’s injury-thinned defense and the Kings’ demonstrated ability to grind out tight wins at home. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:39

On the surface, three straight 2-1 Kings wins over Tampa Bay scream under, but the underlying context for this meeting leans the other way: the Lightning are averaging just under six total goals per game thanks to an elite power play and Kucherov’s top-tier production, while a Kings team that once thrived in low-event hockey has recently bled chances during its 1-7-1 stretch, including five goals allowed to Colorado. Tampa’s blue line is missing three regulars, which should both soften its own defensive resistance and help Los Angeles generate more than the single-goal outputs that have plagued it against better teams, especially with skilled wings like Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe and Quinton Byfield all healthy. Add in that both sides are motivated to bank points in a crowded playoff race before the midpoint of the season and that Tampa has been attacking aggressively on the road during this win streak, and there are enough paths for this to get past six despite the series’ recent 2-1 box scores. Pick: Over 5.5 at -130, graded a B- because the offensive and situational indicators support goals, but the heavy juice and the Kings’ tendency to fall back into grinding, low-scoring scripts slightly cap the value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:39

Given that the last three meetings have all finished within a single goal and Los Angeles continues to lean on tight-checking, special-teams-driven games, taking Tampa Bay at +1.5 on the puckline lines up with both the matchup history and current form, especially with the Lightning offense rolling and Andrei Vasilevskiy capable of stealing periods even behind a depleted defense. The downside is price and correlation: -235 is steep for a derivative tied closely to a moneyline underdog, and you’re laying that number in a spot where Kings shooters like Kempe, Fiala and Trevor Moore have repeatedly found timely goals against Tampa, while a Kings pull-away is still possible if the Lightning’s patched-up blue line finally cracks on the second half of this surge. Still, with the Kings struggling to finish teams off and Los Angeles entering with only a modest positive goal differential compared to Tampa’s much stronger number, the most likely script remains another one-goal contest either way, which favors grabbing the goal and a half but doesn’t offer a great risk-reward profile. Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 at -235, graded a C+ because it has a high probability of cashing in a historically tight matchup yet offers limited payout and is strongly tied to the same game state as the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:39