Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers

With both teams coming out of the break on two-game winning streaks, the moneyline comes down to form, health, and how their stars match up, and right now that tilts slightly toward Florida at home. The Panthers have ripped off an 8-2-0 run on the back of high-tempo third periods and a deeper forward group, while Tampa Bay’s recent bounce-back is tempered by the loss of key defensemen Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak plus winger Brandon Hagel, leaving Andrei Vasilevskiy to cover more structural cracks than usual. Florida already handled the Bolts 5-2 in Tampa earlier this month behind a Sam Reinhart clinic, and even if Matthew Tkachuk remains a game-time decision rather than a sure boost, the combination of Sergei Bobrovsky’s current groove and a 12-7-2 home mark makes the Panthers the slightly better side at a pick’em price. I’m backing Florida on the moneyline at -110 and grading it a B+ play for solid win probability with fair but not spectacular value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/12/2025 09:28am

This total hinges on whether Tampa Bay’s tightened results or Florida’s surging offense drives the game script, and recent trends plus matchup history point me toward goals. The Panthers have averaged just under four goals per game over their last 10, with back-to-back five-spot third-period comebacks against Carolina and a 5-2 win in Tampa showing how quickly they can blow games open, while their own goals-against has hovered around three per night despite Bobrovsky’s strong win total. Tampa’s last 10 have been slightly lower scoring overall, but their power play remains lethal, and they just put up 10 goals combined in statement wins over the Hurricanes and Blues, even with a depleted blue line that’s more vulnerable in transition. Head-to-head this season they’ve already produced a 5-2 and a 3-1 result, and with both teams’ top six groups largely intact and the rivalry stakes high in a one-point divisional gap, I like offensive talent to win out over structure. I’ll take Over 6 at -110 and grade it a B, reflecting decent edge on the number with moderate variance if Vasilevskiy and Bobrovsky both steal a few extra saves. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/12/2025 09:28am

Even while I lean Panthers on the moneyline, the combination of Tampa Bay’s 10-4-3 road record, Andrei Vasilevskiy’s long-term .910-plus body of work against Florida, and how often the Battle of Florida tightens into one-goal games makes the Lightning +1.5 puckline side attractive as a high-probability, low-upside angle. Florida’s recent 8-2-0 heater features several multi-goal wins, but they’ve also needed late pushes and special-teams bursts to separate, and Tampa’s top unit with Brayden Point and Kucherov still has enough punch to keep this within a goal even without Hedman and Cernak driving the back end. With the teams separated by a single point in the Atlantic standings and both riding mini-streaks, the incentives point toward a playoff-style, tight-checking finish rather than repeated empty-net blowouts. I’m playing Tampa Bay +1.5 at -260, grading it a B- because the probability of cashing is strong but the steep price and limited payout drag down the overall value compared with other ways to attack the game. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/12/2025 09:28am