Buccaneers vs Panthers

Baker Mayfield’s perfect record against his old team and last year’s 48-14 demolition of Carolina would normally scream Buccaneers, but Tampa rolls into Charlotte on a 1-5 skid with back-to-back late-game collapses and a banged-up core of playmakers. With Mike Evans still working back from his collarbone issue, Chris Godwin Jr. popping up on the injury report, and captain Lavonte David managing a knee injury, the Bucs’ margin for error around Mayfield is thinner than it was in those earlier beatdowns, while the Panthers’ offense has grown up behind Bryce Young and rookie star Tetairoa McMillan after Young’s 448-yard torching of Atlanta. Carolina is also coming off a crushing last-minute loss in New Orleans that dropped them into a first-place tie with Tampa, so both sides have full playoff urgency, but the healthier perimeter weapons and home field tilt me toward the Panthers as a live underdog despite Mayfield’s historical dominance in this matchup. At +130, Carolina’s moneyline offers better risk-reward than laying a road price on a sliding Bucs team, so I’m backing the Panthers outright but keeping it to a B grade because Tampa still owns the higher quarterback floor and plenty of recent head-to-head success. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:54 ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php))

Even with two capable quarterbacks, this sets up more like a tense, methodical NFC South grinder than a track meet, given how both offenses are currently constructed and who’s on the injury report. Tampa Bay’s passing game is built around rookies and depth wideouts while Evans and Godwin nurse late-season ailments, which encourages a heavier dose of Bucky Irving on the ground and shorter, clock-chewing concepts, and Carolina’s attack has become more balanced around Bryce Young’s timing with McMillan and Xavier Legette behind an offensive line that’s already missing or limiting key pieces like Ikem Ekwonu. Recent scores for these teams have frequently landed in the high 30s to low 40s, and in a de facto division playoff with both coaches under pressure, you’re more likely to see conservative fourth-down decisions, red-zone runs, and drives that trade field position rather than nonstop deep shots. With 45.5 giving you room above a lot of their recent combined totals, the Under has a solid edge on both game script and personnel, so I rate Under 45.5 at -110 as a B+ play for this matchup. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:54 ([buccaneers.com](https://www.buccaneers.com/news/buccaneers-panthers-injury-report-dec-18-week-16-2025?utm_source=openai))

The spread best captures how tight this game should be: Tampa still has the higher ceiling with Mayfield and big-play rookie Emeka Egbuka, plus a track record of lighting up this defense, but the Bucs’ cluster injuries at receiver and linebacker, combined with their late-game execution issues, make it hard to trust them to win by margin on the road. Carolina, meanwhile, has a second-year quarterback playing his best ball of the season, a true WR1 in McMillan who’s statistically neck-and-neck with Egbuka, and a home crowd treating this as a playoff opener with the NFC South lead on the line, even if the Panthers’ own inconsistency makes an outright call less comfortable. Given Mayfield’s history against Carolina and Young’s volatility, a narrow Tampa win remains very much in play, which is exactly why catching the full +3 with the home side is attractive: you’re covered on most one-score outcomes, including a Bucs field-goal squeaker, while still live for a Panthers upset similar to their recent statement wins. That blend of probability and protection on a key number makes Carolina +3 at -115 my favorite angle on this game and earns an A- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/12/2025 11:54 ([rotowire.com](https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php))