Blues vs Lightning

The recent form edge is narrower than the price suggests, but with Tampa Bay at 19-13-3 and just snapping a mini‑skid by putting six past Carolina, I still lean to the Lightning moneyline over a Blues team that’s only 14-15-8 despite winning three of its last four. St. Louis is riding momentum after Robert Thomas’ two‑goal night in the 6-2 win at Florida, yet they remain a negative‑31 in goal differential with 94 goals for and 125 against, while Tampa sits at +19 with 113 goals scored and only 94 allowed, a sign that the underlying five‑on‑five gap is real. The injury report matters here: the Blues are without key forwards like Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, Nick Bjugstad, Jimmy Snuggerud and Nathan Walker, thinning an already average attack, while the Lightning’s blue line is depleted (Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak and Emil Lilleberg all sidelined) but their forward core of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel is intact according to the latest ESPN rosters. Vasilevskiy’s return from IR stabilizes Tampa’s crease, and although Jordan Binnington has historically held his own against the Lightning, Tampa’s skater depth plus home ice (9-9-0) against a merely .500 road team (7-7-3) still tilts this in the favourite’s direction. Kucherov’s track record versus St. Louis — 19 points in 18 career games and 7 points in his last 5 against them — adds another layer of matchup advantage if he’s fully past his recent illness. From a value standpoint, -240 is rich given Tampa’s 3-6-1 wobble over the last 10, which keeps this from an A‑range recommendation, but I grade Lightning moneyline at B: solid probability of cashing, modest return for the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 22/12/2025 09:23am

With the total set at 5.5 and shaded to the Over at -120, the scoring profile of these teams points slightly to goals despite some recent strong goaltending. Tampa Bay is averaging just over 3.2 goals per game (113 in 35) and has shown they can spike totals quickly — most recently in a 6-4 win over Carolina — while St. Louis, though only at 2.5 goals per game (94 in 37), just hung six on Florida and has been generating more lately from Thomas, Jake Neighbours and newcomer Jonatan Berggren. The Lightning’s power play has been merely average this season around 17 percent, but that unit still runs through elite half‑wall playmakers like Kucherov and Point and now draws a Blues penalty kill that’s sub‑80 percent for the year, even if St. Louis has tightened up shorthanded over the last 10. On the flip side, Tampa’s penalty kill has been excellent in the mid‑80s, but structural injuries on the back end (no Hedman or Cernak) and the likelihood of some heavier minutes for second‑pair defenders raise the risk of breakdowns at even strength against a Blues team that’s quietly 5-4-1 in its last 10. Whether it’s Vasilevskiy versus Binnington or one of the backups, recent results suggest both sides can be leaky when the game gets stretched; the Blues’ -31 differential points to their games tilting high‑event once they’re chasing, and Tampa is 16-4-0 when they get to three or more. I don’t love the price on the Over given the 5.5 total and the possibility of a tighter goaltending duel if Hofer or Vasilevskiy steals it, but factoring in Tampa’s offensive ceiling, St. Louis’ injury‑hit forward corps still contributing, and the defensive absences for the Lightning, I grade Over 5.5 at B: a reasonable edge with moderate risk if the game stays more conservative than expected. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 22/12/2025 09:23am

Given the combination of price and game script, Blues +1.5 at -135 on the puckline is my favourite angle in this matchup, edging out both the moneyline and total. The market has Tampa heavily favoured on the moneyline, yet their recent 3-6-1 stretch and just‑.500 home record suggest a team winning more often than not, but not always by margin, especially with top defenders Hedman and Cernak unavailable and Emil Lilleberg also out, forcing Jon Cooper to lean hard on J.J. Moser and Ryan McDonagh in tough minutes. St. Louis is far from healthy — missing Kyrou, Bjugstad, Holloway, Walker and Snuggerud — but Jim Montgomery’s group has still managed to go 5-4-1 over its last 10 and has played a string of tight games, including a 2-1 overtime loss to the Rangers and a 1-0 win over Winnipeg, before the statement 6-2 road victory in Florida. Jordan Binnington’s career numbers versus Tampa (2.74 GAA, .908 save percentage with a 7-4-0 record) indicate he’s generally kept the Lightning within reach, and that stability in net meshes well with a one‑and‑a‑half‑goal cushion in a contest where the total is only 5.5 and both sides have respectable special‑teams structure. Add in that ESPN’s updated rosters confirm Tampa’s forward stars are all active, which increases the likelihood of the Lightning still finding a way to win outright, and Blues +1.5 becomes a classic “dog keeps it close even if they lose” position. Balancing a high likelihood of cashing with a reasonable but not cheap price, I grade Blues +1.5 at B+, narrowly ahead of the other edges on this board. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 22/12/2025 09:23am