Blues vs Senators

Brady Tkachuk’s return to the Senators’ top six gives Ottawa a clear edge on home ice against a Blues team riding a two-game skid and looking increasingly vulnerable defensively. With St. Louis now 9-12-7 and coming off consecutive multi-goal losses to Anaheim and Boston, the Blues’ recent surge against Ottawa on November 28 (a 4-3 home win keyed by Dylan Holloway and Jordan Binnington) feels more like an outlier than a trend, especially with Robert Thomas listed day-to-day and multiple depth wingers on injured reserve. By contrast, Ottawa sits at 13-10-4, has gone 7-5-1 over its last 13 despite a heavy road load, and now gets a healthier top nine featuring Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux in front of Linus Ullmark, who has stabilized their back end even without Thomas Chabot. Even though both clubs are still shy of the 41-game mark, the Senators are firmly in the Atlantic mix while St. Louis is mired near the bottom of the Central, adding urgency for Ottawa to bank points at home after dropping its last outing. At -155, I project the Senators as modestly undervalued favorites with roughly a low-60s win probability, which earns a solid but not elite B grade on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:34am

For the total, the recent profiles of these teams point slightly toward a tighter, lower-scoring game than their 4-3 Blues win in St. Louis last week might suggest. The Blues have scored just three combined goals over their last two losses and are missing several wingers (Alexey Toropchenko, Jimmy Snuggerud, Nathan Walker) while Robert Thomas is nursing a minor issue, all of which limits their ability to roll three threatening lines on the road. Ottawa can certainly explode offensively, but since Linus Ullmark took over the crease they’ve leaned into a more controlled, shot-suppressing style, and they’re still missing top puck-mover Thomas Chabot while juggling day-to-day injuries to Shane Pinto, Lars Eller and Artem Zub, which can dull transition pace even at home. With both teams still under 30 games played, coaches are more inclined to lock things down structurally than trade chances in what’s an important Eastern Conference home date for the Senators and a survival game for the Blues in a crowded Western race. I expect Ottawa to dictate tempo, limit St. Louis’ rush looks and grind this into a 3-2 type contest more often than a track meet, making Under 5.5 at -110 a slight value lean worthy of a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:34am

Given how these teams have actually played each other and their broader tendency toward one-goal decisions, grabbing the Blues at +1.5 on the puckline is a reasonable way to fade St. Louis’ poor record while still respecting Ottawa’s home-ice edge. Their first meeting this season finished 4-3 for the Blues and was competitive wire to wire, and both clubs have stacked up a high number of one-goal games so far, with Ottawa’s last 10 featuring seven contests decided by a single goal and St. Louis coming off a stretch where they followed back-to-back one-goal wins with two regulation losses that were closer on underlying play than the final scores. Even with key Senators like Brady Tkachuk now healthy and driving offense and the Blues missing multiple wingers, St. Louis can still lean on Jordan Binnington and a heavy-minutes right side of Justin Faulk and Colton Parayko to keep this close, especially in a situational spot where both teams are coming off losses and under 30 games played, meaning lineup depth and goaltending tend to matter more than scoreboard volatility. Because the price is steep at -210 the monetary upside is limited, but I rate the chance of St. Louis staying within one goal as high enough to justify a B-grade puckline play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:34am