Blues vs Canadiens

With Montreal riding a two-game winning streak and five victories in its last seven, while St. Louis just snapped a two-game skid last night in Ottawa, the momentum angle leans clearly toward the home side. The Blues not only have to deal with travel and back-to-back fatigue, they’re also missing or severely hampered in several key forward spots: Jordan Kyrou left Saturday’s game early with a leg injury and has been their leading goal scorer, while depth pieces like Jimmy Snuggerud and Nathan Walker are already sidelined, leaving Jim Montgomery to lean heavily on Brayden Schenn and Robert Thomas for offense. Montreal has its own injury concern with Kirby Dach still out, but their current roster—confirmed via ESPN—features a deep center group anchored by Suzuki plus a red‑hot Caufield, who’s on a lengthy point streak and has historically torched the Blues with six goals and three assists in eight career meetings. Add in Jakub Dobes’ recent form in net and the Canadiens’ overall record edge at 15-9-3 compared to St. Louis at 10-12-7, and laying the -145 with the home favorite looks like a modestly underpriced spot; I’d put Montreal’s true win probability in the low 60s, enough for a B+ grade given the juice but still solid expected value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:34am

Both teams enter off tight, low-scoring wins—St. Louis grinding out a 2-1 victory in Ottawa and Montreal taking back-to-back shootout decisions by 3-2 and 2-1—which is exactly the kind of recent pattern you want to see when eyeing the Under despite the market shading the Over at 5.5. The Blues’ offensive ceiling is clearly capped right now with Kyrou leaving Saturday’s game early and multiple middle-six wingers already out, forcing them to lean on a more conservative, goalie-first approach that saw Joel Hofer face over 40 shots and still clamp down a road win; that style tends to drag pace and chance quality down on the second night of back-to-backs. On the other side, Montreal’s recent success has been driven less by track-meet hockey and more by structure: Dobes has stabilized their crease, and the blue line—now featuring Noah Dobson—has done enough to let Caufield and Suzuki pick spots rather than trade rushes all night, which typically keeps totals in check even when the Habs are playing well. Given the combination of a tired Blues team likely content to simplify and protect its own end, plus a Canadiens group that has been winning with defense as much as offense, Under 5.5 at 105 earns a B grade: not a slam dunk given Montreal’s offensive talent, but a reasonable underdog price in what profiles as a 3-2 or 3-1 type game more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:34am

St. Louis may be on the wrong side of the overall matchup, but the combination of their recent defensive effort and Montreal’s tendency to play close games makes grabbing the Blues at +1.5 on the puckline, even at a steep -220, a defensible contrarian angle. The Blues just held Ottawa to a single goal on the road thanks to Hofer’s 41-save performance and an aggressive penalty kill, and even before last night they were more often losing by one or two in regulation than getting routinely blown out, which is exactly what you want when taking the underdog spread. The big risk factor is the Kyrou injury—he’s historically been excellent against Montreal with six goals and two assists in nine career meetings—but that also nudges St. Louis toward a more grind-it-out style that can suppress scoring, while Montreal’s offense, even with Caufield’s strong track record versus the Blues and Suzuki’s 11 points in his last 10 games against them, has lately been eking out narrow wins rather than piling on multi-goal cushions. Given the Habs’ current form and home-ice advantage I still prefer their side straight up, but the data-driven expectation of a one-goal game more often than the odds imply makes Blues +1.5 at -220 a thin-value, lower-upside B- play, suitable more for parlays or larger banks than as a standalone hammer. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:34am