Blues vs Panthers

Florida rolls into this one on a heater, now 19-13-2 after a furious home comeback over Carolina capped a stretch of eight wins in their last ten, while St. Louis is just 2-3 over its last five and still searching for consistency on the road. With the Panthers’ current roster built around Brad Marchand, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Anton Lundell up front plus Sergei Bobrovsky in net, their overall scoring rate (around three goals per game) and top-10 penalty kill give them a clear structural edge over a Blues team averaging under two and a half goals and sitting bottom-third defensively. St. Louis is also missing key offensive pieces in Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud, and their forward depth leans heavily on Robert Thomas and secondary scoring that has not traveled well, which is a problem against a Florida group that has become one of the league’s tougher home dates again this year. Historically, the matchup has tilted toward high-impact Panthers stars like Aleksander Barkov and Reinhart, who drove last season’s OT win over St. Louis in this building, but with Barkov sidelined and the Blues’ recent series success in 2024-25, this isn’t a total mismatch—just one where Florida’s current form, special teams, and home-ice profile outweigh the price. At -190, the implied probability is roughly mid-60s percent; given the matchup and injury context, this projects closer to the low-70s for Florida, making it a solid but not slam-dunk edge: Panthers moneyline gets an A- for likelihood with modest but reliable value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:32

Totals-wise, Florida’s hot streak has featured some offensive spikes, but zooming out, their profile—roughly 3.2 goals for and just over 3 against per game—combines with a strong penalty kill and Bobrovsky’s stabilizing form to tilt this number toward a tight home script, especially against a Blues team that’s scoring only about 2.4 per night and has lost multiple top-six forwards. St. Louis’ attack is now heavily dependent on Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk’s point shots, and a patchwork wing group, and with Kyrou and Holloway out plus depth hits like Nathan Walker and Snuggerud on IR, their ability to generate sustained pressure against a structured Panthers blue line is questionable. Recent head-to-head meetings have also leaned toward lower-scoring games in this matchup, including a 2-1 OT decision in this building last season and a run of Blues–Panthers contests where disciplined five-on-five play and goaltending have kept totals in check, and tonight’s number of 5.5 bakes in more finishing talent than is actually available on either side. The main risk to an under comes from Florida running away with it if the Blues penalty kill (sub-80 percent) breaks, but with St. Louis likely to play conservatively on the road and the Panthers comfortable grinding out results, Under 5.5 at -110 earns a B+—not a smash spot, but a solid lean in a game where injuries and style point more toward 3–2 than 4–3. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:32

For the puckline, Florida’s recent surge—home wins over Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Dallas and now Carolina, many by multi-goal margins—suggests they’re capable of stretching this against a Blues team that has been outscored on the season and is just 5-9-2 away from home, but the current injury picture and St. Louis’ tendency to drag games into one-goal territory temper confidence. The Panthers are still without core drivers Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk along with several depth pieces, meaning Paul Maurice is leaning heavily on Marchand, Reinhart, Bennett, Evan Rodrigues and Mackie Samoskevich to carry the offense, and that concentrated scoring can lead to “get the lead, lock it down” home scripts rather than constant pushing. On the other side, the Blues’ offense is thinned without Kyrou, Holloway and Snuggerud, yet they have just enough playmaking through Thomas and a mobile back end—plus competent goaltending from Joel Hofer—to keep this within a goal more often than the moneyline implies, especially if special teams stay relatively even. Because the puckline asks Florida not just to win but to clear a St. Louis team that’s already taken several recent games to one goal (including an OT loss to the Rangers and a 1-0 win over Winnipeg), Panthers -1.5 at 143 is more of a high-variance, plus-money stab than a core position; it grades out at C+ for a modestly attractive payout tied to lower but still live blowout equity if Florida’s forecheck snowballs. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:32