Blues vs Bruins

Boston’s home-ice profile and depth scoring make the Bruins an intriguing underdog at 118 against a Blues team that still hasn’t found a consistent gear. The Bruins come in off a tight 5-4 road loss in Detroit after a 3-2 shootout win over the same Red Wings, so they’re just 3-2 in their last five but have generally been competitive, while St. Louis just had a chance at its first three-game winning streak of the season wiped out by a flat 4-1 home loss to Anaheim and remains stuck below .500. With David Pastrnak sidelined, Boston’s ceiling is capped, yet their current roster core of Morgan Geekie, Casey Mittelstadt and Jeremy Swayman has still driven a 9-5-0 mark at TD Garden and a strong special-teams profile, whereas the Blues’ negative goal differential, bottom-of-the-league five-on-five numbers and road-mediocre 4-5-3 record raise questions about why they’re laying -140 on the road. The Blues have had recent success in this building and Jeremy Swayman’s career line versus St. Louis is only middling, so this isn’t a slam dunk, but grabbing the more structured home side with better special teams at plus money grades out as a solid value play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:23am

The total of 5.5 looks a touch low given that both teams are playing looser defensive hockey than their coaches would like, with Boston sitting at 86 goals for and 91 against and St. Louis at 69 for and 93 against, putting each club north of six combined goals per game on the season. Recent form backs that up: the Bruins’ last outing was a 5-4 track meet in Detroit and they’ve leaned on offense-first pieces like Geekie while injuries chip away at their defensive depth, and the Blues just gave up four at home to the Ducks after repeatedly struggling to keep the puck out despite getting respectable goaltending stretches from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Even with David Pastrnak out, Boston still owns the stronger power play and penalty kill in this matchup, while St. Louis’ sub-77-percent PK and tendency to take penalties on the road make it vulnerable to special-teams spikes that can push a total over in a hurry. Variance with backup-heavy lineups and travel keeps this from elite status, but in a matchup of two leaky defenses and heavy minutes for skill forwards, Over 5.5 at -110 earns a modestly positive edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:23am

Given how often these versions of the Bruins and Blues have played one-goal hockey, Boston +1.5 at -220 profiles as a high-probability if low-upside puckline angle. The Bruins are 9-5-0 at home and have dropped just one of their last three by more than a goal, while the Blues, despite being installed as -140 road favorites, average only 2.56 goals per game with one of the weakest even-strength shot profiles in the league, which makes it hard for them to pull away on the road. St. Louis has enjoyed a recent 3-1-0 run in its last four visits to TD Garden, but several of those contests were tight, and Jeremy Swayman’s overall numbers plus Boston’s strong penalty kill should keep them in striking distance even without Pastrnak, especially against a Blues side missing depth wingers like Nathan Walker and Jimmy Snuggerud and relying heavily on Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou for offense. Because the juice is steep, the long-term bankroll impact is smaller than the raw win rate suggests, yet in a matchup that profiles as close on most nights, backing the home dog to avoid a multi-goal defeat deserves a B+ on probability and overall risk profile. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:23am