Sharks vs Penguins

Macklin Celebrini’s breakout and the Sharks’ steady uptick make me willing to grab San Jose at +140 on the moneyline despite Pittsburgh’s home-ice edge and Sidney Crosby’s long track record against this franchise. The Penguins roll in on a three-game skid with late-game offense drying up and a lengthy injury list that includes Evgeni Malkin, Blake Lizotte and several depth defensemen, while the Sharks have gone 3-3 over their current Eastern swing with statement wins in Carolina and Toronto driven by a top line of Celebrini, Will Smith and Collin Graf. San Jose is also missing key pieces such as Logan Couture, Vincent Desharnais and Michael Misa, but Celebrini already owns a game-winner against Pittsburgh from last season and sits north of a point per game, helping push this group into the early wild-card conversation. Crosby has historically feasted on the Sharks and put up a goal and an assist in October’s 3-0 win in San Jose, yet the combination of Pittsburgh’s 1-8 record in overtime/shootouts and goaltending uncertainty with Arturs Silovs taking over after the Tristan Jarry trade narrows the gap more than this price suggests. With the matchup grading close to a coin flip but the underdog paying +140, I’m taking the Sharks on the moneyline as a B-grade play balancing solid upset probability with attractive return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:28

For the total, I lean to Over 6 at -115, with both teams trending toward mid- to high-event games and relying on goaltenders who have been more solid than spectacular so far. Arturs Silovs sits around a 3.00 GAA with roughly a .900 save percentage and has been leaky at home, while Alex Nedeljkovic’s numbers for San Jose are in a similar band and both sides have been giving up about three goals a night over the past couple of weeks. The Sharks’ young top six of Celebrini, Smith, William Eklund and Tyler Toffoli has fueled a run of multi-goal outputs on this trip, and Rickard Rakell’s activation from IR gives Crosby and Bryan Rust another proven finisher on Pittsburgh’s top line. The first meeting finished 3-0 only because Jarry posted a 31-save shutout against a then-winless San Jose, but with the Sharks’ offense now humming and the Penguins’ defensive structure adjusting post-Jarry, it sets up more like a 6+ goal rematch. Accounting for the realistic paths to 3-3 or 4-2 by the third period but respecting the juice, I grade Over 6 (-115) as a B- play: slightly less value than the side, yet still supported by the offensive talent and goaltending volatility on both benches. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:28

Against the puckline, I prefer taking the Sharks at +1.5 (-190), trusting their ability to keep this within a goal even if Pittsburgh ultimately finds a way at home. The Penguins have already lost eight of nine overtime or shootout games and have lived on a steady diet of one-goal results, a byproduct of leaning heavily on Crosby’s line for offense while missing Malkin and several depth forwards. San Jose, by contrast, is 7-3 in games decided beyond regulation and has repeatedly dragged tight third-period games into extra time behind Celebrini’s playmaking and a power play that now runs through him, Smith and Klingberg, even with Couture and Desharnais sidelined and a few depth pieces nursing knocks from Thursday in Toronto. That early-season 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh came when the Sharks were 0-3-2 and still figuring out their identity; since then they’ve beaten playoff-caliber opponents like Carolina and Toronto on the road and look far more capable of matching Pittsburgh shift for shift. Laying -190 limits the payout, but given how often both teams end up in coin-flip finishes and how the Sharks’ late-game execution contrasts with the Pens’ OT/SO struggles, I’m comfortable calling San Jose +1.5 a B+ puckline recommendation focused on high win probability more than sheer upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:28