Kraken vs Mammoth

The Kraken arrive in Utah having dropped back-to-back road games in Boston and New Jersey, whereas the Mammoth have recently stacked statement wins over Toronto and Dallas, tightening up defensively and getting big nights from Dylan Guenther and Keller just as the schedule turns serious for playoff positioning. With both rosters largely intact — Seattle’s only current listed injury being depth winger Max McCormick, while Utah is missing Alexander Kerfoot but still rolls out a deep center spine of Logan Cooley, Barrett Hayton and Jack McBain — Utah’s top-six continuity and home-ice advantage at altitude stand out against a Kraken group that still leans on structure and goaltending more than raw scoring. The previous meeting at Delta Center, a 5-3 Mammoth win keyed by Guenther’s power-play marker and three points from Nick Schmaltz, highlighted how Utah’s forecheck and speed can expose Seattle’s league-worst penalty kill, and nothing in the underlying numbers (Mammoth with the better goal differential, stronger 5-on-5 scoring and a more reliable PK) suggests that matchup has fundamentally changed. At around Mammoth -196 on the moneyline, the implied win probability sits near 66%, and I make Utah closer to 70% given recent form, special-teams edge and home-ice, leaving a modest but real value margin; that combination earns this side an A- grade for confidence and expected return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:47

Utah’s recent form leans toward higher-event hockey — they’re averaging just over three goals per game with Guenther, Keller and Schmaltz driving a top-heavy attack, while still conceding under three thanks to Karel Vejmelka’s strong work in net — and Seattle’s profile is that of a low-volume but opportunistic offense backed by a stout top-four and Joey Daccord, yet the combination still lands them around 2.7 goals for and 2.9 against per night. The December meeting in this building finished 5-3, and that script made sense: Mammoth’s aggressive forecheck and transition game drew penalties and exploited Seattle’s struggling kill, while the Kraken’s dangerous power play and ability to finish off the rush kept them within striking distance. With both teams now past the halfway point of the season and Western playoff pressure rising, you can reasonably expect a tighter rotation of top forwards and power-play units, which tends to favor offense when one side (Seattle) has a high-end PP but a bottom-of-the-league PK and the other (Utah) has a strong PK but leaky power play still showing signs of life. Books hanging a total of 5.5 with the over around -120 implies roughly a 54–55% chance of six or more goals; my projection is closer to 57–58% given the prior 5-3 matchup, the Mammoth’s recent scoring spike and the way special-teams mismatches push this game away from a pure goaltending duel, so Over 5.5 gets a solid but not elite B grade on a price slightly juiced to the over. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:47

Although Utah has the moneyline and underlying five-on-five edge, the +1.5 puckline on Seattle is appealing in a matchup where the Kraken’s defensive structure, goaltending tandem and methodical pace have kept their goal differential far tighter than their record suggests, even through a recent 2-game slide. Seattle concedes under three goals per game, leans heavily on a top-four featuring Vince Dunn and Adam Larsson in heavy minutes, and tends to suppress shots, which matches up better against Utah’s surgically efficient but not overwhelmingly deep offense than the December scoreline alone might indicate. That earlier 5-3 loss also featured two late empty-netters; in “true” play, it looked more like a one-goal game, and historically these teams have played a string of contests decided by a single goal when the Kraken get competent goaltending and stay out of the box. With both sides relatively healthy (Kerfoot out for Utah, McCormick out for Seattle) and fully aware of the playoff leverage of a four-point swing in the Western race, the likeliest script is Utah leaning on Vejmelka to grind out another home win rather than blowing the Kraken out. At around Seattle +1.5 (-160), the implied probability of the Kraken staying within a goal is just over 61%, and I rate that north of 65% given their defensive metrics and close-game tendencies, which is enough edge to justify a B+ grade on the puckline even while leaning Mammoth on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:47