Seahawks vs 49ers

Seattle’s defense comes into Levi’s Stadium on a six-game winning streak, having held opponents to around 18 points per game during this 13-3 surge, while the 49ers have matched that momentum with six straight wins behind Brock Purdy’s red-hot offense and a 12-4 record. With Sam Darnold starting for Seattle and Purdy piloting Kyle Shanahan’s attack, the quarterback edge leans slightly to San Francisco, but the trenches and health tilt the other way: the Seahawks are missing left tackle Charles Cross, yet the 49ers are without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the year and may not have a fully functional Trent Williams protecting Purdy’s blind side, forcing them to mask a pass rush that has struggled to get home. Christian McCaffrey is cleared, but San Francisco’s defense has been leaky enough lately — including 38 allowed to Chicago — that Seattle’s balanced backfield of Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker plus a healthy receiving corps headlined by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed should consistently move the ball even in a noisy road environment. Add in a forecast calling for light rain and high-50s temperatures at this outdoor venue, which favors the more physical, deeper front seven and run game, and a Seahawks team that is 7-1 on the road with multiple double-digit wins looks slightly undervalued in what is essentially a pick’em for the NFC West title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. At a moneyline of -118 versus the 49ers at -102, I project Seattle closer to the high-50s in win probability, enough edge to justify the price but not so much that this isn’t still a high-variance rivalry spot, so I’ll play Seahawks -118 on the moneyline with a Grade B for solid but not elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:31

The total at 47.5 sits right on the long-term profile of this matchup, but several game-specific factors nudge me to the Under 47.5 at -110 despite both teams riding six-game win streaks. Seattle’s defense has quietly been one of the league’s stingiest, allowing just over 18 points per game and generating top-tier pressure without blitzing, and now faces a 49ers offense that has been explosive of late but could be forced into a more conservative script if Trent Williams is limited and the forecasted evening showers in Santa Clara turn into steady second-half rain. The earlier meeting between these teams this season finished 17-13, and while both offenses are in better form now — with Purdy on a heater and Seattle’s run game and short passing rhythm peaking — the combination of an outdoor venue, a wet ball, and two staffs that are comfortable grinding out drives with McCaffrey, Charbonnet and Walker makes a clock-chewing, field-position battle more likely than another 42-38 Bears-style track meet. San Francisco’s defense minus Bosa and Warner is vulnerable enough that I still expect both offenses to find the mid-20s in efficiency terms, but in a game where the NFC’s top seed is at stake, fourth-down aggression often gets dialed back, and red-zone conservatism plus a few time-consuming drives can easily turn what looks like a shootout on paper into something closer to a 24-20 or 23-21 final. With that scoring band, there’s a modest edge on the Under, but the clash between Seattle’s elite defense and San Francisco’s suddenly juggernaut offense keeps it from being more than a Grade B- recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:31

For the spread, I’m staying aligned with the moneyline and taking Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at -110, trusting that the same factors — dueling six-game win streaks, a healthier and more disruptive defense, and a 49ers front seven missing its All-Pro heartbeat — translate into a margin that more often lands beyond a single point. Seattle has been dominant away from home at 7-1 on the road and just throttled Carolina 27-10, while San Francisco, despite Purdy’s five-touchdown heroics against Chicago, has shown cracks defensively without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, giving up explosive plays and struggling to finish drives with pressure. Historically this rivalry at Levi’s Stadium has been tight, but the Seahawks did snap their skid here with a three-point win last season, and with Darnold facing a pass rush that ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks and interceptions forced, the matchup favors Seattle winning the turnover and field-position battle even if the conditions turn slick. On the other side, Purdy still has Deebo Samuel — who has tortured Seattle over his career — and McCaffrey to stress the edges, but if Williams is at less than full strength and the 49ers are forced into longer down-and-distance against a high-pressure Seahawks front, the probability of a late defensive stand or short field tilts toward Seattle extending any narrow lead. Given that most realistic Seattle-win scripts look like something in the 3–7 point range rather than a one-point escape, laying -1.5 at -110 offers slightly better long-term value than the steeper -118 moneyline while carrying similar game risk, making this a Grade B play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:31