Kraken vs Oilers

With Seattle riding a three-game skid and fresh off being blanked 4-0 at home by these same Oilers, while Edmonton comes in off a tight 1-0 loss to a red-hot Wild team, the momentum edge still leans toward the home side even if both teams were shut out in their last outing. The Kraken are missing Jaden Schwartz, their early scoring leader, and still have Kaapo Kakko and Matt Murray on the shelf, which shortens their offensive options and crease depth, while Edmonton’s absences (Kasperi Kapanen, Jack Roslovic, Jake Walman) hit their supporting cast more than their core of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evan Bouchard. Historically this matchup has been ugly for Seattle, with Edmonton owning a 13-4 all-time edge and McDavid piling up 19 points in 13 games against the Kraken, and Stuart Skinner’s career 1.53 GAA and .939 save percentage versus Seattle compares favorably to Joey Daccord’s 3.00 GAA and .897 save percentage against the Oilers. Add in Edmonton’s elite power play around 29 percent versus a Kraken team sitting 32nd in goals scored with just 59 in 24 games, and the Oilers are deserved favorites on home ice, even if the -235 price is steep and caps the value. I’m taking Edmonton on the moneyline at -235 with a B grade, reflecting strong win probability backed by matchup history and special-teams edge but only middling monetary value at this number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:46am

Both teams enter this one off shutouts in opposite directions — Edmonton split a 4-0 win in Seattle and a 1-0 loss to Minnesota, while the Kraken have been blanked twice in their last three — and Seattle’s season-long scoring profile (59 goals for, 63 against in 24 games) screams low event despite the Oilers’ reputation. With Schwartz and Kakko sidelined and Jared McCann only recently working back from a lower-body issue, the Kraken’s top-nine punch is materially weakened and their power play has looked disjointed, going 0-for-11 over their last two games against Dallas and Edmonton; on the other side, the Oilers’ offense is still driven heavily by McDavid and Draisaitl, but they’ve managed just one goal over their past two outings despite strong territorial play. Goaltending and structure point toward a tighter script than the Oilers’ overall 3.00 goals-for and 3.48 goals-against per game suggest: Daccord has a solid 2.68 GAA on the season, while Skinner has allowed only one goal in his last two starts combined, and Edmonton’s penalty kill sits in the middle of the pack around 81 percent rather than the disaster it was at times last year. With the market tilted to the Over at -120, I like the contrarian Under 5.5 at 100 as a B+ pick, balancing a decent chance of the game staying in the 3–4 total-goal range with plus-money value if both goalies continue their recent form. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:46am

Given the way the last meeting unfolded — Edmonton dominating special teams and finishing 4-0 despite only modest shot volume — the market is understandably tilted toward the Oilers, but when you fold in their season-long inconsistency and recent 1-0 home loss, the safer angle looks like backing Seattle to keep this closer than the moneyline implies. The Kraken’s five-on-five defensive numbers are respectable for a team at 11-7-6, and even in the 4-0 defeat Daccord still faced only 25 shots, suggesting structure breakdowns on penalties and finishing issues more than a full-scale meltdown, while his season GAA under 2.70 and Skinner’s home splits (3.60 GAA, .858 save percentage) hint that a repeat multi-goal Oilers blowout isn’t guaranteed. Seattle’s injury list (Schwartz, Kakko, Murray, plus long-term depth loss in Max McCormick) certainly trims their ceiling, but with Edmonton also down middle-six contributors like Roslovic and Kapanen and still leaking goals overall (96 allowed in 27 games), the likelier script is a grindy one- or two-goal contest rather than a walkover. With that context, I’m taking Seattle +1.5 on the puckline at -140 and grading it B-, acknowledging the heavy juice but trusting a tighter defensive response and the under lean to keep this within a goal more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:46am