Spurs vs Trail Blazers

San Antonio’s depth around De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes and Devin Vassell has already carried them to an 11-5 start and a recent three-game win streak even with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper all sidelined, and I like that battle-tested core at +100 against a Blazers team that’s 8-10 and just snapped a skid after getting blown out in Oklahoma City. Portland still leans heavily on the red-hot Deni Avdija and Jerami Grant, but with Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle and Damian Lillard all on the shelf, their creation and point-of-attack defense are badly compromised, which is a rough recipe against Fox in spread pick‑and‑roll. San Antonio also took three of four from Portland last season, including a win in this building, while the Blazers’ best recent offensive outburst came against a Bucks team mired in its own five-game slide, so the Spurs’ combination of form, rest advantage, and backcourt edge gives this moneyline a solid blend of win probability and even-money value, worthy of a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:55am

Portland’s banged-up backcourt — missing multiple high-usage guards — has forced more deliberate, point‑forward offense through Deni Avdija and Jerami Grant, and recent Blazers totals in the 210–220 range against OKC and Milwaukee don’t really justify a lofty 238.5 number in a game where they’re facing a Spurs group that just played grindier contests like 111-101 vs Memphis and 111-102 at Phoenix without Wembanyama or Castle to turbocharge the pace. San Antonio’s offense now leans more on Fox’s half‑court shot creation and Barnes’ mid‑range and spot‑up game than on transition chaos and lob spam, while the Blazers can still throw size at the rim with Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III, which should further suppress easy paint points for a short-handed Spurs attack. With both teams fighting through key injuries, recent scoring trends skewing slightly lower than this total, and the added intensity of an NBA Cup group matchup nudging defensive effort up more than offensive efficiency, I’m comfortable grading Under 238.5 at -109 as a B: not a slam dunk, but a modest edge in a game more likely to land in the low 220s than the high 230s. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:55am

De’Aaron Fox and the Spurs getting +1.5 on the spread feels like the cleaner way to attack this matchup, given San Antonio’s 11-5 record, their 3-1 stretch since losing Wembanyama and Castle, and their history of pushing Portland close (or beating them) even when the Blazers’ roster has been healthier than it is now. While Avdija and Grant absolutely have the firepower to swing this at home — as Grant’s 35-point outburst in Milwaukee just showed — Portland’s cluster of guard injuries means more offensive responsibility on secondary creators and less reliable late‑game execution, which plays directly into Fox’s strengths as a closer and San Antonio’s experienced wing rotation with Barnes, Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan. Because I already lean Spurs on the moneyline and the matchup variables (recent form, injury lists on both sides, and last season’s 3‑1 Spurs edge in the series) all point toward a tight finish, grabbing the extra +1.5 at near-standard juice is a slightly higher‑confidence, slightly lower‑variance position than the straight upset, so I’ll grade Spurs +1.5 (-112) as a B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:55am