Spurs vs Thunder

Oklahoma City rides a franchise-record win streak into Las Vegas, having opened 24-1 with a double-digit average margin while winning 16 straight and overwhelming teams on both ends. San Antonio has been hot at 9-3 over its last 12 behind De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle’s shot creation, but even a probable-return version of Victor Wembanyama on a minutes cap has to solve a Thunder core that’s nearly fully healthy and humming around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Recent head-to-heads have tilted toward OKC as well, including last season’s 146-132 road win in San Antonio when Williams erupted for 41 and Gilgeous-Alexander added 31, underscoring the matchup problem the champs pose for this Spurs defense. With the Thunder’s dominance, relative health edge and top-tier continuity, I’m laying the price and backing Oklahoma City on the moneyline at -455, but the expensive number keeps this in B+ territory rather than an A. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:40

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steering an offense averaging well over 120 points per night, paired with a Spurs group that just hung 132 on the Lakers in the quarterfinals, makes this total of 228.5 look reachable even with tournament intensity. Oklahoma City’s blistering pace and video-game scoring margins, combined with Castle, Fox, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell all in rhythm, point to extended stretches where neither side can consistently get stops, especially with the Thunder’s versatile shooting around the arc. Wembanyama’s expected return from his calf strain does introduce elite rim protection, but a likely minutes restriction plus OKC’s ability to pull him into space with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein should blunt his defensive impact enough to keep the scoreboard moving. Given recent Spurs-Thunder meetings that have soared into the 240s and beyond, I lean to Over 228.5 at -110, grading it a B- due to the volatility that comes with such a high number on a neutral floor. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:40

Jalen Williams torching San Antonio for 41 points in last season’s 146-132 shootout, alongside Gilgeous-Alexander’s relentless scoring and a reloaded Thunder frontcourt, highlights why Oklahoma City has covered big numbers all year while racking up blowouts. The Spurs’ form is undeniably strong after nine wins in twelve and a comfortable Cup win over the Lakers, and a probable Wembanyama return plus Fox/Castle playmaking give them real punch, but integrating a star back from a month-long calf absence under a workload cap against this buzzsaw is a brutal ask. With OKC’s defensive numbers nearly as eye-popping as its offense and a pattern of double-digit victories against quality opposition, I expect their depth and two-way ceiling to eventually wear down San Antonio in the second half. I’m laying the -9.5 with the Thunder at -120 and grading it a B-, acknowledging both the strong blowout profile and the risk that a late Spurs push or minutes-managed bench stretch turns it into a backdoor sweat. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/12/2025 09:40