Spurs vs Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder enter on a three-game win streak at 33-7 overall and a dominant 19-2 at home, while the Spurs come in 27-12 and just 5-5 over their last 10 after dropping their most recent outing. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) Injury-wise, Oklahoma City is down frontcourt anchor Isaiah Hartenstein plus depth pieces Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber, but San Antonio’s loss of Devin Vassell removes a key two-way wing who’s important for spacing and on-ball defense against OKC’s guards. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder)) Even though the Spurs are shockingly 3-0 in the season series with Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox driving those wins, the Thunder’s overall firepower with SGA, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, combined with their elite home profile, points to overdue regression in front of a fired-up Paycom Center. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) With OKC holding the West’s top seed and San Antonio sitting second, protecting homecourt here matters for potential tiebreakers and future playoff homecourt advantage. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) I’m backing the Thunder moneyline at -286, grading it a B because the win probability is high but the return is modest and San Antonio’s matchup history still injects real risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:51

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs hit Oklahoma City having split their last 10 games while the Thunder ride a three-game win streak, yet the three prior meetings this season landed at 220, 240 and 219 total points even with OKC owning a 121.4 points-per-game attack. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) With San Antonio missing perimeter scorer Devin Vassell and the Thunder down key screener/rebounder Isaiah Hartenstein plus depth big Thomas Sorber, both teams lose some offensive punch and second-chance scoring upside. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder)) Over the last 10, OKC is averaging 119.8 scored and 112.4 allowed while the Spurs sit at 111.4 for and 109.8 against, which aligns more with a mid-220s environment than a game soaring into the 230s unless the pace really spikes. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) Given this is effectively a battle between the West’s top two seeds with a playoff-style feel and coaches likely to tighten rotations, lean on halfcourt execution and let Wembanyama and Holmgren dictate at the rim, I like Under 229.5 at -118 and grade it a B+ as a slightly better blend of likelihood and price than the straight moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:51

De'Aaron Fox and the Spurs have taken all three meetings from Oklahoma City by 2, 20 and 15 points, repeatedly covering as underdogs despite the Thunder’s superior overall record and current three-game win streak. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) While OKC is shorthanded up front without Isaiah Hartenstein and season-long absences Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber, San Antonio’s primary loss is Devin Vassell, leaving the core of Fox, Wembanyama and Stephon Castle intact to attack OKC’s defense off the dribble and through mismatch hunting. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder)) The Spurs have clearly found tactical answers in this matchup—using Wembanyama’s length to bother Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren while letting Fox control tempo—which suggests this rivalry-game intensity and seeding pressure near midseason should keep things competitive even if the Thunder finally grab a win. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview/_/gameId/401810423)) Catching +7.5 in a series they’ve dominated so far, San Antonio against the spread is my favorite angle on the board, earning an A- grade for pairing strong matchup evidence with a generous cushion around likely single-digit closing margins. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:51