Spurs vs Pelicans

De'Aaron Fox and the Spurs roll into New Orleans on a 15-7 surge while the Pelicans stagger in at 3-21 with six straight losses and just one win in their last ten, highlighting a massive form gap before you even factor in injuries and efficiency.  Antonio is top‑10 in offensive efficiency and comfortably positive in net rating, even with Victor Wembanyama sidelined and Stephon Castle working back from a hip issue, whereas New Orleans is dead last in the West and now leans heavily on Trey Murphy III and a rookie backcourt because Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray and Jordan Poole are all on the shelf. Fox’s career production versus the Pelicans (around 22 points and 6.5 assists across 26 meetings) should translate cleanly against a defense that’s been bleeding penetration and defensive boards, and the Spurs’ 9–4 record as favorites this year supports laying the price on the superior, better-coached side even on the road.  At -430 the edge is more about probability than raw value, so this profiles as a high-likelihood, low-upside moneyline that earns a B+—ideal as a parlay anchor or for bettors comfortable with heavier juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/12/2025 09:40am

New Orleans’ short-handed offense, which has been stuck around 112 points per game and just 3-21 overall, now has to manufacture scoring without Zion, Poole or Murray against a Spurs team allowing about 114 points per night and ranking in the league’s upper half defensively. San Antonio does push pace and scores efficiently, but their games and the Pelicans’ recent stretch both point slightly under this inflated number: the combined average of their points scored and allowed sits roughly six points below a 236–237.5 total, and New Orleans’ last ten have averaged about 232 total despite frequent defensive lapses because their offense keeps bogging down in the halfcourt. ([foxsports.com](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nba/spurs-vs-pelicans-prediction-odds-picks-dec-8?utm_source=openai)) With the Pelicans starting multiple rookies and often stalling late in games plus the risk of a lopsided score leading San Antonio to throttle back in the fourth, the Under 236 gets a solid B: the number is still high enough to offer value in a contest where one side may struggle to reach 110 without its primary creators. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/12/2025 09:40am

Trey Murphy III has quietly kept New Orleans competitive even during this freefall, and that shows up at the window: despite the brutal 3-21 straight-up mark, the Pelicans are 14-10 ATS and an impressive 8-5 ATS as underdogs of roughly this size, repeatedly hanging around long enough for backdoor covers. San Antonio is clearly the better team and still 7-3 ATS over its last ten, but they’re on the road, remain without Wembanyama, have backcourt depth concerns with Castle and Jordan McLaughlin just returning or still out, and lean heavily on Fox’s creation, which can lead to late-game stalls when the ball sticks. The Pelicans swept a February home set against the Spurs last season behind big nights from Murphy and Zion, and even though Zion is sidelined despite his historically strong numbers versus San Antonio, that familiarity with the matchup plus a raucous home building gives them a realistic chance to lose respectably rather than be blown out.  Catching the full +10, I lean to New Orleans to sneak inside the number in a likely Spurs win, grading it a B- given the decent value but real risk that San Antonio’s shotmaking turns this into a no-sweat cover for the favorite instead. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/12/2025 09:40am