Spurs vs Rockets

Kevin Durant and the Rockets have been a different animal at Toyota Center, rolling to a 14-3 home record while the Spurs come in on a three-game streak and the second night of a back-to-back after Wembanyama’s 33-point outburst against Utah. With Houston down Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet (and possibly Tari Eason) and San Antonio missing Devin Vassell, both rotations are thinner than the name recognition suggests, but Durant’s 26.1 points per game this season and his long history of torching the Spurs (nearly 25 a night over his career) still pair with Alperen Sengun’s all-around play to give the Rockets a slight reliability edge at home despite San Antonio having already beaten them 121-110 behind a strong Wemby line earlier this year. I’m backing Houston on the moneyline at -182 with a Grade B recommendation, acknowledging the price is heavy in a matchup where Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox have enough firepower to keep the upset door cracked. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 12:31

Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs have quietly turned into one of the league’s best under teams, with totals staying below the number in nine of their last ten overall and in eight straight on the road, while Houston has been modestly under-leaning at home despite their 14-3 record in the building. Even though the first meeting finished 121-110 (231 points) and both sides feature elite offensive hubs in Wembanyama and Durant, the current injury picture – no VanVleet, no Adams, a banged-up Eason and Vassell – trims secondary scoring and ball-handling, and San Antonio’s back-to-back spot often suppresses pace after they lean on their length and rim protection. With both teams jostling for Southwest positioning and mindful of tiebreakers, this projects more like a half-court playoff-style grind than a track meet, so I’m on Under 221.5 at -118 with a cautious Grade B- given the earlier high-scoring matchup. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 12:31

San Antonio’s recent ATS profile makes them an intriguing road dog, as they ride a three-game winning streak and a strong record on second nights of back-to-backs into Houston, while the Rockets have gone just 2-8 against the number in their last ten despite that gaudy 14-3 home mark. With Houston still favored by 3.5 behind Durant and Sengun but missing key rotation pieces like VanVleet and Adams, the matchup leans toward a close, high-leverage Southwest clash where Wembanyama (24.8 points, 10.8 boards) and De’Aaron Fox’s late-game shot creation can trade blows with Durant’s career success versus the Spurs and Amen Thompson’s downhill pressure. Given that San Antonio already handled Houston in their first meeting and both teams are eyeing top-four seeding in the West at the midseason point, I like the Spurs to stay inside the number even if Houston squeaks out the win, so Spurs +3.5 at -105 gets a Grade B+ from me. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 12:31