Spurs vs Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers host San Antonio having dropped four of their last five but still owning an 8-5 home record, while the Spurs arrive at 15-6 after winning seven of nine on a grueling nine-city swing. Cleveland is severely shorthanded without Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Max Strus, Sam Merrill, Tyrese Proctor and Larry Nance Jr., yet San Antonio is also missing Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Jordan McLaughlin, with Luke Kornet nursing an ankle issue, pushing both teams deeper into their benches. Mitchell has consistently torched the Spurs, averaging around 25 points and double-digit assists in last season’s meetings, and Evan Mobley has produced roughly 20 points and 10 boards per game in six career outings against San Antonio, while Wembanyama’s prior dominance against Cleveland (over 20 points and 12 rebounds per game) is off the table due to his calf strain. Factor in the Cavs’ 15.6 made threes per game, Mitchell’s 30-plus scoring average, and a still-stout home-court edge against a Spurs team that’s been living on the road, and Cleveland remains the likelier straight-up winner even with its current skid, though the rich price keeps this to a B-level play rather than premium value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:44am

San Antonio’s offense has surged during its 7-2 run without Wembanyama, riding De’Aaron Fox’s roughly 27 points per night and strong wing shooting, but Spurs games are averaging about 232 total points—well below this 238.5 number—while Cleveland’s recent 1-4 skid has come with a shortened rotation that drags on pace and efficiency. With Garland, Strus, Merrill and Allen all sidelined, the Cavs’ attack leans heavily on Mitchell–Mobley half-court actions and fewer easy transition threes, and the Spurs are likewise down a ton of usage and rim pressure without Wembanyama and Castle, which caps their ability to turn this into a pure track meet. Recent evidence, like Cleveland’s 13-for-52 three-point clunker in the loss to Portland and San Antonio’s ability to grind out 114-112 and 126-119 wins behind late-game execution rather than breakneck tempo, points toward some shooting variance but not sustained hyper-pace. Given that both sides are missing key scorers, San Antonio is deep into a fatiguing road swing, and season-long numbers already sit below this inflated total, the Under 238.5 (-110) gets a B+ as a slightly favored outcome with a modest edge in pricing. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:44am

De’Aaron Fox and the Spurs have been covering numbers throughout this stretch, going 7-3 over their last 10 and 6-2 since Wembanyama went down, while Cleveland has stumbled to 1-4 in its last five despite huge lines from Mitchell and Mobley. The Cavaliers’ cluster of injuries—no Garland to stabilize the offense, no Allen or Nance to anchor the interior, and no Strus or Merrill to space the floor—forces role players like Lonzo Ball, De’Andre Hunter and others into larger scoring roles, whereas San Antonio’s depth of wings and forwards (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Dylan Harper and a prominent Kornet) has already proven it can sustain winning basketball on this trip. Historically these teams play tight: last season’s two Cavs wins over the Spurs came by eight and one point, even as Mitchell averaged over 25 points and double-digit assists and Mobley posted 25 points and 12 boards in their late-season Texas escape. Layer on San Antonio’s 6-4 road mark, a perfect 6-0 record against the East, and the current state of Cleveland’s rotation, and taking Spurs +5 (-110) offers meaningful cushion around what still profiles as a one- or two-possession game, grading out as an A- in terms of both expected hit rate and bang for your buck. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:44am