Kings vs Pacers

Pascal Siakam and the Pacers look like the slightly safer side on the moneyline at -170, coming home off a skid-snapping road win in Chicago while the Kings, despite a LaVine-led explosion in Miami, are still just 1-5 over their last six and reeling from recent blowout losses. Indiana’s long-term absence of Tyrese Haliburton has forced Rick Carlisle to lean more on Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard, but with a relatively intact frontcourt and home-court advantage, the Pacers project as more stable than a Sacramento group missing Domantas Sabonis, possibly Dennis Schroder and Keegan Murray, and already saddled with a -10.6 point differential and bottom-tier rebounding. With LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook headlining a guard-heavy Kings roster against a Pacers team that swept last year’s series and just showed improved defensive activity, I expect Indiana’s interior edge and slightly healthier depth to carry them to a narrow home win often enough to justify paying the juice, though the overall volatility on both sides caps this as a B-grade rather than premium play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/12/2025 09:37am

Sacramento’s offense, fresh off ending a four-game losing streak but still averaging only 111.7 points with one of the league’s worst rebounding profiles, makes it easier to lean under 233.5 at -110 in a game where both teams just snapped skids and may be more inclined to grind than to run. The Kings are without Sabonis and could again be missing Schroder and Murray, stripping away a key hub and secondary creators, while Indiana’s attack — even with Siakam and Mathurin rolling — has generally slowed and grown more turnover-prone without Haliburton orchestrating, as shown in the contrast between their controlled 120-105 win in Chicago and earlier 135-point defensive leakages against Denver and Cleveland. Add in multiple day-to-day rotation pieces on the Pacers’ side, the potential for shorter minutes if either team gets sloppy, and a matchup of two bottom-tier records with little incentive to push tempo for 48 minutes, and a combined total landing in the low- to mid-220s feels more likely than the high-230s this number demands, making the under a B- grade play with some acknowledgment of risk given both defenses’ bad nights. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/12/2025 09:37.am

Zach LaVine and the Kings getting +3.5 at -105 are attractive in a matchup of two sub-.300 teams, especially after LaVine’s 42-point, eight-three performance in Miami finally snapped Sacramento’s four-game skid and reminded everyone of this backcourt’s ceiling even with Sabonis sidelined. Indiana’s recent uplift behind Siakam, Mathurin and Nembhard — plus a strong road showing in Chicago — is real, but the Pacers are still adjusting to a full season without Haliburton while juggling injuries to Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith and several rotation guards, leaving their scoring depth and lineup continuity shaky for consistently winning by margin. With the Kings’ perimeter-heavy roster (LaVine, DeRozan, Westbrook, Malik Monk and rookie Devin Carter) capable of generating quick runs, and Sacramento’s earlier rebounding issues at least partially mitigated by Indiana’s own modest glass work and banged-up frontcourt, this profiles as a tight, swingy contest where Indiana may eke out the win but struggles to separate, so taking the points with the Kings at +3.5 earns a B- grade for combining reasonable hit rate with better price than the home chalk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 08/12/2025 09:37.am