Trail Blazers vs Raptors

Toronto’s 14-7 start, even while riding a two-game skid, still looks stronger than Portland’s 8-12 mark and matching two-game slide, especially with the Raptors back home where they recently ripped off four straight wins by double digits behind a 117+ offensive rating and big nights from Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and Brandon Ingram. With RJ Barrett sidelined by a knee sprain, Toronto loses a 19-point scorer, but Portland’s injury list is even more damaging, with Damian Lillard out for the season and both Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson dealing with leg issues that leave Deni Avdija and Jerami Grant to shoulder heavy creation against a long, switchable Raptors defense. The Blazers did sweep last season’s series behind Sharpe, Simons, and Avdija, but Toronto’s upgraded talent and deeper guard rotation, combined with Portland’s reliance on Avdija to do everything offensively, tilt this matchup toward the home side more often than the -225 price implies, though the juice keeps this from elite value. I’d back Toronto on the moneyline at -225 with a B-grade confidence: high likelihood of cashing, but only moderate expected return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:39am

Portland’s recent scorelines have swung from a 127–123 shootout at Golden State to multiple games landing in the high 210s, but context matters: the Blazers are now down multiple primary ball-handlers, which slows pace and leans them into Avdija-centric halfcourt sets rather than free-flowing transition. Toronto, despite its strong 117.1 offensive rating on the season, has seen four of its last six games finish under 232, and the Raptors are now missing Barrett’s aggressive downhill scoring, further concentrating usage into Barnes, Quickley, and Ingram in more deliberate pick-and-roll and mid-post actions. Both teams enter on two-game losing streaks and should prioritize defensive focus and shot selection to stabilize, and with Portland’s offense likely to bog down against Toronto’s length while the Raptors’ own scoring ceiling is trimmed slightly by injury, this total feels a touch inflated relative to recent combined outputs in the low-220s. I like Under 232 at -110 with a B+ grade: solid edge built on current form, injuries, and pace expectations. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:39am

Scottie Barnes and the Raptors, even coming off two road losses, have generally handled business at home, recently stacking four straight wins over the Wizards, Nets, Cavs, and Pacers by an average margin comfortably above this -5 spread, while Portland has dropped two straight and continues to juggle lineups without Lillard, Holiday, Henderson, and key depth pieces. The last time these teams met, Portland’s length and shooting (Camara, Avdija, Sharpe, Simons) caused Toronto problems, but this version of the Raptors adds Ingram and a full season of Quickley, giving them multiple on-ball creators to target Portland’s thinner backcourt and force bigs like Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III into space. With the Blazers leaning heavily on Avdija’s playmaking after his recent monster outing and traveling east for a tough environment, their margin for error shrinks against a Raptors group still battling for early seeding near the top of the Atlantic and possessing the depth to withstand Barrett’s absence. I’ll lay the points with Toronto -5 at -110 with a B-grade: a solid but not slam-dunk edge built on home dominance, injury disparity, and matchup versatility. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:39am