Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies

Memphis’ six-wins-in-eight surge heading into this home date, compared with Portland’s 1-4 slide despite a 5-1 ATS run, tips the moneyline edge toward the Grizzlies even before you account for who’s actually available. Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Javon Small are all listed out, but Memphis has stabilized behind Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama and a hot Cam Spencer, who’s averaging mid-teens scoring while shooting blisterly from deep in an expanded role. Portland counters with Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe, yet they’re missing or heavily managing key ball-handlers and defenders in Damian Lillard (season), Scoot Henderson, Jrue Holiday, Matisse Thybulle and Blake Wesley, while rim protector Donovan Clingan is still only questionable, leaving their already bottom-tier shooting and creation under even more stress. Avdija’s 31-16-8 dismantling of Memphis back in March shows he can torch this matchup, but with the Grizzlies’ improved form, home court at FedExForum and Portland’s injury load, I’m backing Memphis at -120 on the moneyline with a B+ grade for a modest edge and decent short-favorite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:43am

Portland’s third-ranked pace and Memphis’ top-12 tempo suggest plenty of possessions, but both offenses are living in the bottom tier of field-goal percentage and true shooting, which has kept the Grizzlies’ overall scoring profile far more grinding than the raw pace implies. Head-to-head, these teams are just 2-8 to the Over in their last 10 meetings, and Memphis has leaned Under-heavy this season despite its recent mini-surge. With offensive engines like Lillard, Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday sidelined for Portland and Morant plus multiple Grizzlies guards out, both coaches are leaning on length, offensive rebounding and half-court execution rather than free-flowing, high-efficiency offense. Given the combination of fast pace but poor shooting, short-handed backcourts and a history of lower totals between these clubs, I’m taking Under 233.5 at -110 with a B grade: solid but not premium value in a game that still has blowout and foul-fest risk late. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:43am

Deni Avdija’s expanded role, highlighted by that 31-16-8 hammering of Memphis last season, plus Portland’s 13-9-1 ATS record and 9-3 ATS mark against the Grizzlies (including 7-1 ATS in Memphis), make the Blazers a dangerous dog even with all their injuries. Still, the current version of Memphis has quietly banked six wins in eight behind Jackson, Aldama and Spencer, and they now face a Blazers group missing its primary ball-handlers (Lillard, Scoot, Holiday, Wesley) and a key stopper in Thybulle, with Clingan not fully healthy, which should let the Grizzlies’ versatile wings attack weaker points of Portland’s perimeter and interior defense. With the spread sitting at essentially a pick’em at -1, I expect Memphis’ home edge, superior health in the frontcourt and recent cohesion under Tuomas Iisalo to be just enough to overcome Portland’s strong historical ATS trend in this matchup. I’m laying the -1 with the Grizzlies at -110, but the entrenched Portland spread success tempers this to a B- grade for only modest value on the host. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:43am