Trail Blazers vs Warriors

Stephen Curry and the Warriors are still the side to back straight up at home, with Golden State’s veteran-heavy core (Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green) largely healthy on the current ESPN roster and carrying a 13-6 home mark into this one, while Portland arrives off a snapped five-game winning streak and a 19-21 record that leaves them clinging to the play-in pack. The Trail Blazers’ guard rotation is thinned by long-term absences for Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson plus Blake Wesley’s foot injury, and now they’re managing back and Achilles issues for Deni Avdija and Jerami Grant on the wing, which puts a ton of creation burden on Avdija against a defense that can load up with multiple plus defenders. Curry has repeatedly torched Portland in recent seasons, including a 38-point, nine-three barrage in their November trip to Chase Center, and with both teams having played 41 games this projects as an “avoid a slide” spot for a Warriors team firmly in the West’s top-eight race; the price is heavy, which knocks this down to a B- grade, but Golden State still profiles as the most likely winner by a comfortable margin. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:57

Portland’s offense makes Over 223.5 appealing here, with Avdija’s recent surge (34, 29, 33 and 41-point outings across big wins over the Pelicans, Spurs, Jazz and Rockets) and Donovan Clingan’s shooting gravity helping the Blazers post 122, 115, 137, 103 and 111 points in their last five victories despite being down multiple guards. Golden State home games with a mostly intact rotation have also leaned high-scoring, as shown by 137 vs Sacramento, 123 vs Utah, 120 vs Milwaukee and even 111 in the loss to Atlanta, and Curry’s usage plus Butler’s downhill pressure keep their offensive floor high while their aging core and recent schedule load have produced some defensive drop-offs. With Matisse Thybulle and Kris Murray sidelined and Avdija/Grant dealing with minor knocks, Portland loses key perimeter and help defense pieces just as they face a Warriors group that historically bombs away from three and has consistently lit up this matchup; combined with both teams jostling around the West play-in line and unlikely to mail in minutes, the game script leans toward enough competitive scoring on both sides to get past this mid-220s total, though blowout risk and shooting variance keep it at a B- rather than a higher-confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:57

Deni Avdija’s breakout stretch and Portland’s recent form make +10.5 attractive, as the Blazers have won five of their last six and were competitive even in their streak-ending loss to the Knicks, with Avdija and Clingan repeatedly punishing defenses that sell out on the arc while versatile forwards like Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe give them enough length to switch across Golden State’s small lineups. Even with Seth Curry sidelined by a back issue and depth guard L.J. Cryer banged up, the Warriors remain rightly favored thanks to Curry, Butler and Green, but recent results show volatility: they were blown out by Oklahoma City, crushed Sacramento, edged Milwaukee, then dropped back-to-back games to the Clippers and Hawks, suggesting performance swings that don’t always align with double-digit pricing. Portland already proved it can hang at Chase Center by winning November’s NBA Cup meeting behind Avdija’s playmaking and Clingan’s interior presence, and with both clubs squarely in the play-in logjam at the halfway point, the incentive for the Blazers to grind all 48 minutes is strong; Golden State still rates as the more likely straight-up winner, but the combination of recent Portland resilience, key Warrior depth injuries, and the size of this number pushes me toward Blazers +10.5 with a solid B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:57